TLDR
- NHTSA has escalated its investigation into Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system to a more detailed engineering analysis.
- The probe covers roughly 3.2 million Tesla vehicles — nearly all vehicles Tesla has sold in the U.S.
- Nine crashes have been linked to the issue, including one fatal crash and two that caused injuries.
- The probe focuses on Tesla’s “degradation detection” system, which is meant to warn drivers when camera visibility is reduced.
- The escalation could lead to a recall or other enforcement action if regulators find a safety defect.
NHTSA has upgraded its investigation into Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, moving to a deeper engineering analysis phase that could end in a recall. The probe now covers roughly 3.2 million vehicles — effectively the entire U.S. Tesla fleet.
Tesla (TSLA) stock was down 1.63% on the day the news broke.
The investigation centers on FSD’s “degradation detection” system. That system is designed to spot when camera visibility is reduced — things like sun glare, fog, or debris — and warn the driver to take over.
NHTSA says the data it has reviewed raises concerns that the system failed to do that job, both before and after software updates.
Nine crashes have been tied to the issue. One was fatal. Two others resulted in injuries.
In crashes reviewed by regulators, the FSD system did not recognize conditions that blocked camera visibility. In some cases, alerts were not issued until just before impact — leaving drivers little or no time to react.
NHTSA also found other crashes in similar low-visibility environments where the system either failed to detect reduced visibility at all or didn’t give drivers enough time to respond safely.
Tesla’s own post-incident analysis suggested a software update to the degradation detection system may have affected the outcome in three of the nine crashes — if that update had been installed at the time.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
What an Engineering Analysis Means
An engineering analysis is a more resource-intensive phase of a federal investigation. It allows NHTSA to collect more detailed technical information from the automaker and dig deeper into potential defects.
If the agency concludes a safety defect exists, it can push for a recall or take other enforcement action. Tesla has faced multiple NHTSA investigations in recent years covering various aspects of its driver-assistance technology.
What’s at Stake
Tesla’s entire autonomous driving roadmap — including its planned robotaxi service — depends on regulators and the public trusting FSD.
Any move toward a recall affecting 3.2 million vehicles would be one of the largest in the company’s history and would add fresh pressure on a technology that Tesla has marketed as a core part of its future.
NHTSA’s escalation follows a pattern of increased regulatory scrutiny of FSD. In late 2024, the agency opened a separate probe into FSD crashes involving reduced visibility conditions, which resulted in four incidents including one fatality.
Tesla has not publicly commented on the latest escalation as of Thursday evening.
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