TLDR
- Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 2026, a 6% year-over-year rise but slightly below the 365,000 consensus estimate
- TSLA stock is down 29% from its all-time high, hurt by weak EV demand, expiring tax credits, and competition
- Bank of America reinstated coverage with a $460 price target, citing Tesla’s vision-only robotaxi approach as a scalable cost advantage
- Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla’s cost-per-mile at $0.81, well below Waymo ($1.43) and traditional rideshare ($1.71)
- Tesla’s Energy Storage segment missed badly — 8.8 GWh deployed vs. 14.4 GWh expected, a 40% shortfall
Tesla’s Q1 2026 delivery numbers came in at 358,000 vehicles, up 6% year-over-year but just short of the Wall Street consensus of 365,000. The miss was the second consecutive quarter where deliveries fell below expectations.
The EV business has faced real pressure. Federal tax credits expired, competition has intensified, and CEO Elon Musk’s political profile has weighed on demand. In 2025, Tesla lost its title as the world’s top EV seller, and deliveries, revenue, and earnings all declined.
TSLA stock is currently sitting 29% below its peak. But two major Wall Street firms have stepped up with bullish notes — and they’re focused on what comes next, not what just happened.
Bank of America analyst Alexander Perry reinstated coverage in March with a $460 price target, implying around 33% upside from the current price of $345. That target matches the median among the 56 analysts covering the stock, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Perry’s core argument is about autonomous driving. Tesla currently runs robotaxi services in just two U.S. cities — Austin and San Francisco — putting it well behind Alphabet’s Waymo, which operates in 11 cities. But Perry sees Tesla’s camera-only approach as the key differentiator.
Most robotaxi operators use a combination of cameras, lidar, and radar. Tesla uses cameras only. It’s technically harder, but far cheaper. There are no expensive sensor arrays to install, and no need to pre-map cities with lidar before launching in a new market.
“Tesla’s camera-only approach is technically harder but much cheaper and leverages a consumer-fleet data engine. Tesla’s strategy should allow it to scale more profitably compared to robotaxi competitors,” Perry said.
Cost Advantage Could Be Decisive
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco echoes that view. He estimates Tesla’s robotaxi cost-per-mile at $0.81, compared to $1.43 for Waymo and $1.71 for traditional rideshare platforms. He expects that figure to fall further as Cybercab production scales.
Percoco also sees the robotaxi rollout creating a feedback loop: more rides generate more real-world driving data, which trains Tesla’s AI models, which improves the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software available to regular car buyers, which lifts demand in the core auto business.
Musk has said the autonomous ridesharing network could expand to “dozens of major cities” covering between a quarter and half of the U.S. by year-end. Morgan Stanley projects Tesla will capture 25% of U.S. autonomous driving trips annually by 2032, behind Waymo at 34%.
Energy Storage Was the Real Miss
While the auto delivery numbers got most of the attention, Tesla’s Energy Storage segment had a rough quarter. Megapack deployments came in at just 8.8 GWh, a 40% miss versus the 14.4 GWh consensus. It was Tesla’s first year-over-year decline in storage deployments since 2022.
Analysts are calling it a one-off, pointing to the lumpy nature of large-scale utility contracts and project timing. But it’s a number worth watching.
Morgan Stanley has adjusted its full-year 2026 delivery forecast to 1.60 million vehicles, still representing a 2.2% year-over-year decline. The firm’s longer-term model targets a mid-teens volume CAGR through 2030, driven by new model launches including a potential “Model YL” and an updated Cybertruck.
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