TLDR
- CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson identified rare bottom signals in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio using normalized oscillators that have historically preceded strong Bitcoin recoveries
- The ratio currently shows both blue and green bottom signals, with the green signal representing the alignment of multiple indicators at their lowest points
- JP Morgan research forecasts Bitcoin could reach $165,000 by 2025 based on current undervaluation compared to gold
- Bitcoin is trading two standard deviations below its ideal range at around $106,925, which historically marks accumulation phases
- Frank Fetter from Vibes Capital Management noted an oversold signal in short-term holder MVRV Bollinger bands, the third such occurrence after similar events at $49,000 and $74,000
Crypto analysts are pointing to rare signals in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio that may indicate a market turning point. Joao Wedson, a verified author at CryptoQuant, has identified bottom signals that historically appear during periods of extreme market volatility.
Historic Opportunity: Trade Gold for Bitcoin. 🟡⮕₿
Bottom signals in the BTC/Gold ratio are extremely rare, and they tend to appear during high-volatility moments and sharp BTC drawdowns.
Well, we’re exactly there right now.
The blue signal marks the current bottom, revealed… pic.twitter.com/cWx2YGxd3t— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 18, 2025
The signals rarely emerge in Bitcoin markets. When they do appear, they often mark steep drawdowns that precede strong recoveries.
Wedson’s analysis uses a normalized oscillator to track the BTC-to-gold ratio. The oscillator currently shows what he describes as a clear bottom signal. His chart displays two indicators: a blue signal showing the current ratio bottom and a more powerful green signal that appears when multiple indicators align at low points.
The green signal has historically marked some of the best Bitcoin buying opportunities against gold. Wedson directed his analysis particularly at institutional investors who have been increasing gold holdings recently.
“If I were you, I’d take a close look at this chart,” Wedson stated. He argues that Bitcoin now presents a stronger risk-reward profile than gold.
Institutional Analysis Points to Undervaluation
JP Morgan’s research team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, has assessed Bitcoin as undervalued compared to gold. The bank forecasts a potential Bitcoin price of $165,000 by 2025 based on this comparison.
$BTC is now on the brink of its green range.
This means that it's trading two standard deviations below its ideal level.
This could be concerning if we thought the bull market was peaking, but macro factors indicate otherwise.
Since we believe that this bull run will run till… pic.twitter.com/ne2DfZidNH
— Milk Road (@MilkRoadDaily) October 18, 2025
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has also weighed in on current market conditions. Hayes described the present Bitcoin price as a major buying opportunity.
Frank Fetter from Vibes Capital Management identified an oversold signal in short-term holder MVRV Bollinger bands. This marks the third occurrence of such a signal in recent market history.
The previous two instances occurred during the Yen Carry Unwind at $49,000 and the Tariff Tantrum at $74,000. Both events preceded Bitcoin price recoveries.
Current Market Conditions
Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,925, representing a 0.42% increase over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has gained 14.6% year-to-date and nearly 59% over the past year.
Crypto outlet Milk Road noted that Bitcoin is trading two standard deviations below its ideal range. This condition has historically coincided with major accumulation phases rather than market tops.
The platform stated that macro trends continue pointing to a bull run extending into 2026. Market analyst Pat described the current drop in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio as a “generational bottom event.”
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has functioned as a measure of investor confidence between the two assets. When the ratio reaches bottom levels, it often signals the end of Bitcoin underperformance.
Historical patterns show that past ratio bottoms led to Bitcoin surging to new all-time highs within months. The 2020 market correction in gold preceded a period of growth for Bitcoin.
The recent debate between economist Peter Schiff and Binance’s CZ brought renewed attention to Bitcoin’s role as digital gold. Schiff claimed Bitcoin has failed in this capacity, while CZ defended Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Wedson’s current analysis suggests institutional investors should reconsider allocation strategies between gold and Bitcoin. His oscillator indicates conditions favor a shift toward Bitcoin holdings.
Bitcoin is currently trading in what analysts call a deep value zone based on standard deviation measurements. The current price of $106,925 reflects a 0.42% gain in the past 24 hours.
