TLDR
- Trump publicly praised Palantir’s “war fighting capabilities,” boosting sentiment but not enough to offset valuation concerns.
- PLTR is down 18% year-to-date, trading at a P/E ratio of over 231, with a 200-day moving average of $164.55.
- Q4 earnings beat estimates: $0.25 EPS vs. $0.23 expected, with revenue of $1.41B — up 70% year-over-year.
- Institutional investors hold 45.65% of the stock; insiders sold roughly $137.7M worth last quarter.
- Analyst consensus is “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $197.32, though some firms like Zacks downgraded to “Hold.”
Palantir has had a busy few weeks. President Trump took to social media to praise the company’s “war fighting capabilities and equipment,” giving PLTR a visibility boost in government circles. But the market hasn’t exactly rolled out the red carpet — the stock is still down 18% this year, weighed down by one of the steepest valuations in tech.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
Let’s back up and look at what’s actually driving the story.
In its most recent quarter, Palantir posted $1.41 billion in revenue, up 70% year-over-year. EPS came in at $0.25, beating the $0.23 consensus. Government revenue — still the backbone of the business at 54% of total sales — grew 53% in the full year. Commercial revenue grew even faster, at 60%.
Those are strong numbers. The question is whether the market has already priced them in and then some.
A Valuation That Raises Eyebrows
PLTR currently trades at a P/E of 231. Its 200-day moving average sits at $164.55, well above Monday’s open of $145.89. The stock hit a 52-week high of $207.52 and a low of $89.31, giving a sense of just how wide the range has been.
Optas LLC increased its position by 55.2% in Q4 to 18,647 shares worth $3.3 million. Larger institutions have also been adding. Vanguard lifted its stake by 4% to over 213 million shares. State Street raised its position by 7.2%. Invesco and Amundi also added during the third quarter. Collectively, institutions own 45.65% of the company.
Insiders, meanwhile, have been selling. CEO Alex Karp sold 493,025 shares in February at an average of $133.78, a transaction worth roughly $66 million. CFO David Glazer also sold 17,438 shares around the same time. Insider ownership now stands at 12.93%.
Analyst Views Are Mixed
William Blair recently upgraded PLTR from “market perform” to “outperform.” Citigroup raised its price target from $235 to $260, maintaining a “buy” rating. Loop Capital trimmed its target from $230 to $220 but kept a “buy.” Deutsche Bank held its “hold” rating with a $200 target.
Zacks moved in the other direction, downgrading PLTR from “strong-buy” to “hold” in late January.
The MarketBeat consensus sits at “Moderate Buy,” with an average price target of $197.32 — about 35% above the current price.
On the risk side, Anthropic’s shift to usage-based pricing has raised questions about contract structure risk for enterprise AI players like Palantir. CEO Alex Karp’s recently circulated “mini-manifesto” — which included calls to reinstate the draft and critiques of corporate culture — drew media attention and some investor concern about brand risk.
The FAA modernization angle is also getting some traction. Analysts have pointed to Palantir’s AI capabilities as a potential fit for a multi-billion dollar airspace modernization program, though no contracts have been announced.
For the full fiscal year, analysts expect EPS of $1.05.
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