TLDR
- TSMC has raised its global semiconductor market forecast from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion by 2030, a 50% upgrade.
- AI and high-performance computing are expected to make up 55% of that market, or roughly $825 billion.
- AI accelerator wafer demand is projected to grow 11-fold between 2022 and 2026.
- TSMC is building nine phases of wafer fabs and packaging facilities in 2026, with capacity for its most advanced 2nm chips set to grow at 70% CAGR through 2028.
- Overseas expansion is accelerating, with fabs in Arizona, Japan, and Germany all progressing, plus a newly purchased second land parcel in Arizona for future growth.
TSM closed at $399.80 on May 13, up 0.63% on the day, with after-hours trading pushing the stock to $406.00, a further gain of 1.55%.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
TSMC now sees the global chip market topping $1.5 trillion by 2030. That’s up 50% from its previous forecast of $1 trillion, and the company shared the updated outlook ahead of its annual technology symposium in Taiwan on Thursday.
The revision is being driven almost entirely by AI demand. TSMC expects AI and high-performance computing to account for 55% of that $1.5 trillion market — roughly $825 billion. Smartphones come in second at 20%, with automotive applications at 10%.
One number stands out above the rest: AI accelerator wafer demand is projected to grow 11-fold between 2022 and 2026. That kind of growth rarely shows up in forecasts, and it helps explain why TSMC is building at a pace that would have seemed aggressive just a few years ago.
Capacity Expansion in Full Swing
To meet that demand, TSMC says it has been stepping up capacity faster in 2025 and 2026. The company plans to build nine phases of wafer fabs and advanced packaging facilities this year alone.
Its most advanced chips — the 2-nanometer node and the next-generation A16 — are on track to grow capacity at a compound annual rate of 70% from 2026 to 2028. That’s not a typo.
TSMC’s CoWoS packaging technology, widely used in Nvidia’s AI chips, is forecast to grow at more than 80% CAGR from 2022 to 2027. CoWoS has become a key bottleneck in AI chip production, and TSMC is clearly putting resources behind it.
Global Footprint Gets Bigger
In Arizona, the first fab is already producing chips. The second fab is set to receive equipment in the second half of 2026, with a third under construction. TSMC also just completed the purchase of a second large parcel of land in the state for future use, and work on a fourth fab is expected to begin this year.
Output from the Arizona campus is expected to nearly double year-over-year in 2026, with yields that TSMC says will match those in Taiwan.
In Japan, the first fab is in volume production. Plans for the second have been upgraded to 3-nanometer chips from a less advanced node, responding to stronger-than-expected demand.
In Germany, TSMC’s fab is under construction and on schedule. It will start with 28nm and 22nm chips before moving to more advanced 16nm and 12nm processes.
TSMC’s previous $1 trillion forecast, now bumped to $1.5 trillion, reflects how quickly the AI buildout has changed the math for the entire semiconductor industry.
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