TLDR
- UBS Global Wealth Management raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,100, up from a previous target
- The new target implies roughly 6% upside from Thursday’s close of 7,641
- UBS lifted S&P 500 earnings per share forecasts to $350 in 2026 and $400 in 2027
- The bank also raised its mid-2027 index target to 8,400
- UBS cites three pillars for its bullish view: economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and AI adoption
UBS Global Wealth Management has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,100, pointing to a stronger earnings outlook and confidence that profit growth can continue into next year.
Just in: UBS Global Wealth Management Raises S&P 500 Targets for 2026 and 2027.
UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end 2026 target for the S&P 500 to 8,100 points from 7,900 points. It also raised its mid-2027 target for the S&P 500 to 8,400 points from 8,200 points.… pic.twitter.com/jHwxwjljG5
— Alpha Wire (@AlphaWireNewsAi) August 21, 2026
The new target represents roughly 6% upside from Thursday’s closing level of 7,641.
UBS joins a growing list of global research firms now forecasting the S&P 500 will end 2026 above the 8,000 level.
Earnings Forecasts Revised Higher
The bank lifted its S&P 500 earnings per share estimate to $350 for 2026, up from $335, and to $400 for 2027, up from $375. That represents earnings growth of 25% and 14% respectively.
Strategists led by David Lefkowitz said the upgrades were driven mainly by stronger-than-expected results from semiconductors, technology hardware, and energy companies.
UBS said profit expectations were raised across nearly every segment of the market, not just the technology sector.
The bank also lifted its mid-2027 index target to 8,400, up from 8,200.
Three Pillars Supporting the Rally
UBS kept its “attractive” rating on U.S. equities, pointing to what it calls three pillars holding up the bull market.
The first is resilient economic growth. UBS noted improving conditions in more cyclical areas, including manufacturing activity and job growth in construction.
The second is Federal Reserve policy. The bank expects inflation to ease in the second half of 2026 as tariff effects roll off, which it believes will keep the Fed on hold. “We don’t think the Fed is going to take away the punch bowl,” UBS wrote.
The third pillar is accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence. UBS said AI-related companies remain key contributors to the rally.
The bank noted that recent market performance has been broad-based, supported by an exceptionally strong second-quarter earnings season.
UBS did flag several risks to its outlook. Sustained oil price gains, a return of inflation, or weaker-than-expected returns from AI investment could all pressure the index.
Its downside scenario puts the S&P 500 at 5,500 by June 2027. Its upside case sits at 9,500 for the same period.
The bank’s current base case target of 8,100 for December 2026 remains its headline forecast.
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