TLDR
- A Citrini Research Substack post painted a hypothetical 2028 scenario where AI agents route around card networks, putting Visa’s fees at risk.
- Visa dropped 4.5% on Monday, closing at $306.52, dragging Mastercard and American Express down with it.
- Mastercard fell 5.7% and American Express tumbled 7.2% in the same session.
- Visa nudged up 0.2% in early premarket Tuesday to $307.09, recovering a fraction of the loss.
- A pending $38 billion swipe fee settlement with merchants still awaits a judge’s approval, adding a separate layer of pressure.
Visa Inc. fell sharply on Monday after a research note warned that artificial intelligence could one day reroute transactions away from traditional card networks.
The selloff wiped roughly 4.5% off Visa’s price in a single session, closing at $306.52. The stock had opened at $319.04 and hit a low of $304.71 before settling near the bottom.
The catalyst was a Substack post by independent firm Citrini Research, published Sunday. The piece framed itself as “a scenario, not a prediction” — a hypothetical financial digest dated June 30, 2028.
In that fictional future, U.S. unemployment had climbed above 10% and the S&P 500 had fallen 38% from a peak. The driver, per Citrini: AI displacing white-collar workers at scale.
Citrini specifically named Visa as a vulnerable company. The argument was that AI agents acting on behalf of consumers could seek out cheaper payment routes, putting Visa’s 2%-3% network and processing fees in the crosshairs.
Stablecoins were floated as a potential alternative payment rail — one that could sidestep the traditional card network entirely.
It’s worth being precise here: Visa doesn’t collect interchange fees directly. That money goes to card-issuing banks. Visa earns from network and processing fees, which depend on keeping card volumes high and cross-border flows intact.
The selling wasn’t limited to Visa. Mastercard dropped 5.7%, and American Express fell 7.2% in the same session. Visa and American Express were among the hardest-hit names on the Dow, according to MarketWatch data.
Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, summed up the mood: “You’ve seen the market react to headlines, it’s ‘sell first, assess later.'”
AI Concerns Hit Payment Stocks Broadly
The reaction across payment names reflected broader anxiety about any business model that functions like a “toll booth” — collecting a fee on every transaction.
Traders are questioning whether Monday’s move was a one-day flush or the start of a longer de-rating for that type of model.
Swipe Fee Settlement Adds Separate Pressure
Visa also faces an unresolved legal overhang. In November, Visa and Mastercard put forward a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants over swipe fees. A judge has not yet approved it.
Merchant groups say the deal doesn’t go far enough. Stephanie Martz, general counsel for the National Retail Federation, said: “You can’t just suddenly tell more than 80% of your card customers you’re not going to take their cards.”
By Tuesday premarket, Visa had recovered modestly — up 0.2% to $307.09, clawing back a small slice of Monday’s losses.
Looking ahead, Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell is scheduled to appear at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 3. Commercial & Money Movement Solutions President Chris Newkirk is set for the Wolfe Research FinTech Forum on March 11.
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