TLDR
- Vistra stock opened down 12.6% at $146.23 after missing Q4 earnings and revenue estimates
- EPS came in at $2.18 vs the $2.45 consensus; revenue was $4.58B vs $5.75B expected
- An EVP sold 10,000 VST shares on March 9th at $160.31
- Analyst consensus remains Buy with an average price target of $236.87
- JPMorgan raised its price target to $240 from $239 and maintained an Overweight rating
Vistra Corp’s Q4 earnings report landed with a thud. The company missed both profit and revenue estimates by a wide margin, sending the stock sharply lower when markets opened Monday.
VST opened at $146.23, down 12.6% on the session. That’s a steep drop from its 50-day moving average of $163.60 and even further from its 200-day average of $177.24.
The numbers told the story. Vistra posted Q4 EPS of $2.18, falling short of the $2.45 analysts had expected. Revenue came in at $4.58 billion, well below the $5.75 billion consensus. Net margin stood at 5.32%.
The stock’s 12-month range puts the selloff in context. VST has traded between $90.51 and $219.82 over the past year, so while the drop stings, the stock still sits well above its 52-week low.
Analyst Reaction
Despite the miss, Wall Street is sticking with its bullish outlook. The current consensus sits at Buy, with an average price target of $236.87 — well above where the stock is trading.
JPMorgan updated its model post-earnings and nudged its price target to $240 from $239, keeping an Overweight rating. Goldman Sachs upgraded VST to Buy in February with a $205 target. Jefferies also upgraded to Buy around the same time, setting a $203 target.
Bank of America trimmed its target from $231 to $218 but kept its Buy rating. Scotiabank carries a $293 target with an Outperform rating. Of the firms covering the stock, three rate it Strong Buy, twelve have it at Buy, and one holds it at Hold.
Analysts expect Vistra to post $7 EPS for the full year.
Insider Activity and Dividend
There was notable insider movement ahead of the earnings. EVP Stephanie Zapata Moore sold 10,000 VST shares on March 9th at an average of $160.31, totalling $1.6 million. She still holds 114,409 shares after the sale.
Vistra also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.228, payable March 31st to shareholders of record as of March 20th. That’s a slight uptick from the prior quarterly dividend of $0.23. Annualised, that comes to $0.91 per share, a yield of around 0.6%. The dividend payout ratio sits at 41.94%.
On the institutional side, several firms added to positions in Q4. Teamwork Financial Advisors increased its stake by 39.9%, buying 22,492 additional shares to hold a total of 78,855, worth $12.72 million at quarter-end. Procyon Advisors grew its position by 395.2%. Harbor Investment Advisory jumped 495.7% in its holdings, though from a small base. Institutional investors now own 90.88% of the stock.
The balance sheet carries some weight. Vistra has a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.01, a current ratio of 0.78, and a PE ratio of 67.39. Market cap stands at $49.51 billion.
Considering a new stock? You may want to see what’s on our watchlist first.
Our team at Knockout Stocks follows top-performing analysts and market-moving trends to spot potential winners early. We’ve identified five stocks gaining quiet attention that could be worth watching now. Create your free account to unlock the full report and get ongoing stock insights.Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
