TLDR
- Goldman Sachs raised U.S. recession odds to 30%; Moody’s puts it at 49% within 12 months
- Buffett’s core rule: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful”
- During the 2008 crisis, Buffett invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs, netting over $3 billion in profit
- Berkshire Hathaway has delivered a 19.9% compounded annual return since 1965, nearly double the S&P 500
- Buffett keeps large cash reserves as “financial ammunition” to buy during market panics
Warren Buffett has lived through dozens of market downturns. His advice on what to do during them has stayed the same for decades: don’t panic, and buy when others are selling.
With recession fears growing in 2026, his approach is getting attention again.
Goldman Sachs recently raised its U.S. recession probability to 30%, up from 25%. Moody’s is more cautious, putting the odds at 49% within the next 12 months.
Buffett addressed fearful investors directly during the 2008 financial crisis, writing in The New York Times: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
He argued that bad news is actually good for investors because it allows them to buy quality assets at lower prices.
Buying During the Dip
When markets fell in 2008, Buffett didn’t retreat. He invested $5 billion into Goldman Sachs, taking preferred shares with a 10% dividend yield. That deal eventually earned Berkshire Hathaway more than $3 billion in profit.
He made a similar move in 1973, buying Washington Post shares at roughly 25% of what he estimated their true value to be. By 1985, a $10.6 million investment had grown to over $200 million — a return of nearly 1,900%.
Since 1965, Berkshire Hathaway shares have compounded at 19.9% annually. That’s almost double the S&P 500 return over the same period.
Buffett’s strategy isn’t complicated. He focuses on whether a business’s fundamentals have actually changed, not just its stock price. A drop in share price doesn’t mean fewer people will drink Coca-Cola or use their American Express card.
He has held Coca-Cola shares for 36 years and American Express since the 1960s.
The Role of Cash
One part of Buffett’s strategy that often gets overlooked is his cash position. He doesn’t see cash as dead money. He calls it “financial ammunition.”
Berkshire Hathaway has regularly held $20 billion or more in cash reserves, giving Buffett the ability to act fast when markets fall.
In 2010, after deploying capital during the financial crisis, Buffett pledged to always keep at least $10 billion in cash on hand.
As of the mid-2020s, Buffett is again sitting on a record cash stockpile.
For everyday investors, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF shows how prices can shift. Five years ago, one share cost around $359. Today it costs over $600. A recession could bring that price down, creating a lower entry point for new buyers.
Buffett does not recommend waiting for a recession to invest. He warns that staying out of the market costs time, and time is one of the most valuable tools in investing.
His point is simpler: if prices drop, don’t run. That’s the moment to pay attention.
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