TLDR
- Democrats Greg Casar and Chris Murphy introduced the BETS OFF Act to ban war, assassination, and terrorism bets on prediction markets
- The bill was triggered by “highly unusual bets” on Polymarket tied to a potential US-Israel attack on Iran
- Senator Murphy suggested people with insider government knowledge may have placed the bets
- A Times of Israel reporter received death threats from Polymarket users trying to influence his reporting to win bets
- The bill is unlikely to pass soon as Republicans control both chambers and have shown little interest in the legislation
Two Democratic US lawmakers have introduced a bill to ban certain types of bets on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
💥BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Democrats have introduced the 'BETS OFF Act'
This bans government officials from betting on prediction markets when they have insider knowledge of outcomes. pic.twitter.com/pp9jfeX41e
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) March 17, 2026
Texas Representative Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy announced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions — or BETS OFF Act — on Tuesday.
The bill would ban trading on events related to war, terrorism, and assassination. It would also ban any non-financial government event where someone knows the outcome in advance or has control over it.
A single secret account made $500,000 off of betting precisely right when Trump would go to war with Iran.
We have a corruption crisis in America, and new prediction markets are making it worse.
Today, @ChrisMurphyCT and I introduced a bill to crack down on this corruption. pic.twitter.com/niLg9GnC5V
— Congressman Greg Casar (@RepCasar) March 17, 2026
The move follows several “highly unusual bets” placed on Polymarket predicting that the US and Israel would launch military action against Iran.
Senator Murphy said on March 4 that it was likely people with “inside information” about President Trump’s plans had placed those bets.
“We shouldn’t live in a country where someone sitting in the situation room… could have hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the decision,” said Casar.
Death Threats Over a News Report
The controversy deepened when a military correspondent for the Times of Israel reported receiving death threats. The threats came from Polymarket users who wanted him to change his report on a missile strike in Israel — so they could win their bets.
Polymarket condemned the behavior and said it violated their terms of service.
The BETS OFF Act is the second prediction market bill introduced in recent weeks. California Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act last week, which also targets war and assassination contracts.
Where Platforms Stand Now
Polymarket still lists active contracts on the Iran conflict, including the likelihood of a US ground invasion, a ceasefire timeline, and changes to Iranian leadership. As of Tuesday, the platform showed a 50% chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by May 31.
Kalshi has pulled back. It no longer offers contracts tied to specific military actions or deaths, following backlash over a market on when Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would leave power. Kalshi voided those bets after his death was confirmed, and the platform now faces a class action lawsuit from traders disputing those payouts.
Senator Murphy also raised questions about the broader culture of prediction markets, asking what it means “spiritually” when moral questions become financial bets.
The BETS OFF Act faces a steep climb in Congress. Republicans control both the Senate and the House. Murphy acknowledged the issue lacks bipartisan support, partly because President Trump has financial ties to prediction market platforms.
Arizona’s attorney general has also filed charges against Kalshi, accusing the platform of operating as an unlicensed gambling service.
