TLDR
- SEC Commissioner Crenshaw remains the sole dissenting vote in crypto ETF decisions.
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XRP ETF approval odds fell to 65%, impacted by Crenshaw’s opposition.
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BlackRock may push for an XRP ETF, despite regulatory pushback.
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Crenshaw has previously criticized SEC staff guidance on stablecoins and staking.
The debate surrounding crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues as SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw remains firmly opposed to them. Her stance has contributed to a noticeable drop in market sentiment, with the odds of an XRP ETF approval falling to 65%, down from previous highs of over 80%. This shift raises questions about the future of crypto ETFs and how Crenshaw’s influence could impact their approval.
Crenshaw’s Role in Crypto ETF Decisions
Crenshaw’s resistance to crypto ETFs has been consistent throughout 13 internal votes within the SEC. These votes addressed a range of crypto exchange-traded products, including Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, and all of them passed with a 3-1 result.
Crenshaw, the only Democrat currently on the Commission, has continuously opposed the rise of crypto-related ETFs, making her a key figure in determining the future of such products.
This steadfast opposition has led to increased uncertainty in the market. Polymarket data shows that the probability of an XRP ETF approval has fluctuated significantly, dropping to 65% before slightly rebounding to 71%. This represents a significant decline from the highs seen earlier, which were well above 80-90%.
Crenshaw’s Opposition Could Delay XRP ETF Approval
Crenshaw’s disapproval extends beyond just the crypto ETFs, as she has also been critical of SEC guidance on liquid staking and stablecoins. Her remarks have raised concerns about the clarity of the SEC’s approach to digital assets.
She has labeled recent SEC staff guidance on USD-pegged stablecoins as legally and factually flawed, warning that such documents could mislead investors.
Her continuous resistance could complicate the approval process for future crypto ETFs, including those for XRP. As the Commission votes on various crypto products, Crenshaw’s vote has proven to be a roadblock for some potential approvals. Ripple’s efforts to create an XRP ETF may face even more hurdles if Crenshaw’s stance doesn’t change.
XRP ETF Sentiment on the Decline
The approval odds for the XRP ETF have taken a downturn in recent weeks, largely due to shifting sentiment and Crenshaw’s ongoing opposition. Market watchers had initially been optimistic about the approval of an XRP ETF, especially after the successful launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on the NYSE Arca in July 2025.
However, the recent voting results in the SEC have dampened expectations. While Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas remains hopeful, suggesting that the SEC may still approve altcoin ETFs, including for XRP, others in the market have become more cautious. Analysts point out that XRP now meets the SEC’s updated listing requirements for tokens that have traded derivatives for at least six months, a key factor in potential approval.
BlackRock’s Potential XRP ETF and Future Outlook
Despite the recent setback in Ripple ETF approval odds, there are rumors circulating that BlackRock, a major player in the asset management space, may soon file for its own XRP ETF.
BlackRock’s director of digital assets, Maxwell Stein, is expected to speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025 conference, further fueling speculation that a potential XRP ETF could be on the horizon. However, even with such moves from major financial players, Crenshaw’s firm stance against crypto ETFs remains a significant hurdle.
As the regulatory landscape evolves, the future of XRP and other altcoin ETFs will largely depend on how Crenshaw and other SEC commissioners vote on upcoming proposals. For now, her opposition continues to slow the pace of crypto ETF approvals, keeping the market uncertain.
