TLDR
- Kenny Nguyen forecasts XRP could reach $22 to $50 after the first wave of spot XRP ETFs launches.
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Spot XRP ETFs provide regulated access for institutional and retail investors, potentially increasing demand.
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Analysts predict XRP could see major inflows, pushing its market cap to over $1 trillion.
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Approval odds for spot XRP ETFs are rising, with Bloomberg analysts placing the likelihood at 95%.
Notable crypto commentator Kenny Nguyen has shared his bullish outlook on XRP, predicting that the cryptocurrency could experience a massive surge once spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are launched. Nguyen, known for his market insights, speculated that the price of XRP could rise to anywhere between $22 and $50 as the first set of spot XRP ETFs hit the market. This forecast suggests that XRP could see an astronomical rally of 607% to 1,507%, potentially positioning it as one of the most valuable assets in the crypto space.
Currently trading at around $3.11, Nguyen’s projections would lead to a market cap for XRP ranging from $1.3 trillion to $3 trillion, far surpassing its current $186 billion market cap. The timing of the launch of spot XRP ETFs is seen as pivotal in these price predictions, as it could drive significant institutional and retail investor participation in the market.
Role of Spot XRP ETFs in XRP Price Surge
Spot XRP ETFs are expected to bring regulated exposure to Bitcoin’s primary competitor, providing a unique opportunity for both institutional and retail investors to participate without holding the asset directly.
Unlike Ethereum, which has staking rewards that might deter some investors from buying ETFs, XRP does not offer staking, making ETFs an attractive choice for those seeking exposure without opportunity cost.
Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, noted in a recent podcast that XRP’s strong presence in the payments sector and its global community of millions will contribute to substantial initial inflows once spot ETFs launch. McClurg and other experts have suggested that XRP’s unique characteristics, such as its dominance in cross-border payments, could help it gain more traction in the global financial markets.
XRP’s Potential Price Based on Market Inflows
Several models and projections from industry figures provide insight into where XRP’s price could go once spot ETFs are introduced. McClurg estimates that XRP could attract up to $5 billion in investment in the first month following the launch of its ETF.
Using a market cap multiplier of 272x, this could push XRP’s market cap to $1.5 trillion, resulting in a price of about $26 per XRP—well within the $22 to $50 range predicted by Nguyen.
Other estimates are based on comparisons to Bitcoin’s ETF inflows. If spot XRP ETFs capture just 35% of Bitcoin’s ETF inflows since its launch—roughly $16.3 billion—XRP’s market cap could rise to $1.759 trillion, translating to a price of around $30. More conservative estimates, such as capturing 15% of Bitcoin ETF inflows ($5.85 billion), could push the price to about $12.23, with a 30% share reaching $22.20.
Rising Approval Odds for Spot XRP ETFs
The odds of spot XRP ETFs being approved in the near future continue to climb. Bloomberg ETF analysts have recently placed the probability of approval at 95%, while Polymarket’s prediction market estimates the chances of approval between 80% and 88% for 2025.
With several leading asset managers, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree, filing applications, the approval process is nearing a critical point.
As the U.S. SEC continues to review the proposals, the approval of spot XRP ETFs is expected to be a game-changer for XRP’s market dynamics. The growing institutional interest, coupled with the increasing likelihood of ETF approval, could create a perfect storm for XRP to reach new price levels.
Parallels with Bitcoin ETF Launch and Market Behavior
Many analysts have drawn comparisons between XRP’s potential and Bitcoin’s performance following its ETF launch in January 2024. While Bitcoin experienced a brief dip on launch day, it ultimately surged to new all-time highs above $100,000 within a year.
If XRP follows a similar trajectory post-ETF approval, it could see substantial price gains and potentially break historical price levels.
Ethereum’s market performance, on the other hand, has not yet reached its previous all-time highs, despite the presence of ETFs since last year. Analysts speculate that Ethereum’s price may be more influenced by the rise of ETH treasuries and other factors, rather than simply relying on ETF inflows.
