TLDR
- XRP trades near $3.00 with volume up 17% and over 38% gains month-to-date
- Whales accumulated 160 million XRP tokens worth $1.5 billion in the past month
- Seven XRP ETF filings await October decision windows from the SEC
- Ripple applied for a U.S. banking license with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
- 320 million XRP ($950 million) moved to exchanges creating potential sell pressure
XRP trades at $2.99 after surging back above the $3.00 level during Asian trading hours. The price action follows Bitcoin’s recent climb above $125,000, which typically provides support for large-cap altcoins.
Trading volume increased 17% as the token consolidated below the $3.00 mark. Month-to-date gains exceed 38% for XRP holders.
Blockchain data from Santiment and WhaleAlert reveals large wallet addresses accumulated nearly 160 million XRP tokens in the past 30 days. These wallets hold between 10 million and 100 million tokens each. The accumulated tokens carry a value of approximately $1.5 billion.
Large holders increased their balances by 4% over the past month. At the same time, retail holders reduced their exposure by 2%. This pattern shows institutions and high-net-worth investors are buying while smaller holders sell.
On-chain trackers flagged 320 million XRP moving onto exchanges over the past week. This represents $950 million in potential sell pressure. Exchange balances climbed from 3.45 billion to 3.85 billion XRP between September 26 and October 5.
Seven spot XRP ETF applications currently await SEC decisions scheduled for October. BlackRock, Grayscale, and VanEck reportedly explore XRP trust structures. The SEC previously recognized XRP as a non-security.
Analysts project immediate inflows exceeding $5 billion within the first quarter if the SEC approves even one XRP ETF by early 2026. These projections use Bitcoin’s ETF-to-market-cap ratio as a baseline.
Ripple’s Banking License Application
Ripple Labs submitted documentation to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency seeking approval for a U.S. banking license. The license would allow Ripple to operate as a federally regulated institution.
A banking charter would enable Ripple to offer custody, liquidity management, and settlement services using XRP. This would make Ripple the first blockchain-based firm to achieve full U.S. banking status.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated the transition aims to empower banks rather than compete with them. The company plans a hybrid model where its liquidity solutions integrate with global SWIFT counterparties.
The application timing aligns with the upcoming FedNow API expansion. Ripple appears positioned to use XRP as a settlement layer for real-time U.S. interbank transactions.
Technical Price Levels
XRP builds an ascending triangle structure between $2.60 support and $3.25 resistance. Volume analysis shows consistent accumulation above $2.80.
The 50-day moving average sits near $2.93. The 200-day moving average rose to $1.94. This creates a bullish alignment last seen during the 2017-2018 cycle.
Traders watch for a daily close above $3.12 to $3.30 to validate breakout conditions. A breach of $3.25 could trigger a rally toward $4.00 to $4.20 based on Fibonacci extensions.
The Relative Strength Index currently reads 54, leaving room before overbought territory. The MACD shows a pending bullish cross supporting continuation.
Parabolic SAR support sits around $2.74, cushioning downside risk. Bulls must defend the $3.00 to $2.93 zone to prevent a drift toward $2.85 to $2.75.
Derivatives markets show growing participation with open interest up 4% to $8.9 billion. Age Consumed spikes suggest some long-term holders took profits during the recent rally.
