TLDR
- XRP whales sell over $50 million daily, weighing on market sentiment.
- Technical analysts warn of further XRP declines if support breaks.
- Speculation on ETF approval increases but faces regulatory hurdles.
- Prediction markets show over 99% probability of XRP ETF approval by 2025.
XRP’s price faces increasing volatility as large-scale selling by whales continues to pressure the market. Data reveals that over $50 million worth of XRP is being offloaded by whales each day, a trend that has been ongoing since early 2024. This intensified sell-off is creating a sharp conflict with growing market speculation regarding the approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). Investors are left questioning whether the optimism surrounding the ETF approval will be enough to counterbalance the massive selling activity.
Whale Selling Intensifies, Straining XRP’s Market Sentiment
XRP has been experiencing significant selling pressure from whales, who hold large quantities of the token. According to data from Whale Flow, an analytics platform tracking cryptocurrency transactions, over $50 million worth of XRP is being sold daily by whales.
These large holders, with over 1,000 tokens in their wallets, have been offloading their holdings since early 2024, contributing to the ongoing decline in XRP’s price. The sustained outflows are evident in CryptoQuant’s charts, which show that the net selling from whale wallets has remained strong for nearly two years.
This consistent sell-off has raised concerns among analysts, who warn that the price of XRP may face further declines if the trend continues. As a result, market sentiment has been heavily influenced by the large-scale selling, overshadowing any potential positive news related to XRP’s future.
Technical Analysis Warns of Further Losses
While market sentiment is shaped by whale selling, technical analysis also points to possible downside risks for XRP. Renowned chart analyst Peter Brandt recently flagged XRP as a “short candidate” if it completes a bearish descending triangle pattern. This pattern signals that the asset may face a breakdown if it fails to hold above a crucial support level.
The descending triangle is considered a bearish formation, and if XRP falls below its identified support, analysts predict that further losses could follow. Brandt’s analysis highlights the importance of monitoring the next moves in XRP’s price action. While the ETF approval remains a potential bullish catalyst, the technical signals are not currently supportive of an immediate upward move.
ETF Approval Speculation Still Drives Optimism
Despite the negative technical indicators, some market participants remain optimistic about the potential for an XRP ETF approval. Speculation surrounding the approval of a spot XRP ETF has intensified, with some commentators suggesting that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve the ETF by October 18. This news has driven hopes of a price rally for XRP, especially if the approval leads to increased institutional interest.
However, regulatory experts urge caution, suggesting that immediate approval is unlikely. Legal experts believe that the SEC faces several hurdles in approving a spot XRP ETF in the short term.
While positive regulatory signals have increased the likelihood of approval in 2025, an immediate decision remains uncertain. As a result, even if the ETF news materializes, the market might react with a “sell-the-news” mentality, especially if whales seize the opportunity to exit.
Market Volatility Set to Continue
The ongoing struggle between whale selling and ETF approval speculation means that XRP’s market behavior remains highly unpredictable. XRP’s price is being shaped by these two conflicting forces, with large holders continuing to exert downward pressure, while traders and investors remain hopeful for positive regulatory developments.
According to prediction markets, the odds for an XRP ETF approval in 2025 remain high, with more than 99% probability. This suggests that the approval of an XRP ETF is likely in the near future, but market dynamics in the coming weeks could remain volatile as whale selling continues.
XRP’s next major move could hinge on how both regulatory events and whale activity play out in the near term. As the market watches closely, XRP’s price could face sharp movements depending on any developments related to the ETF or continued whale selling pressure.
