TLDR
- Zealand Pharma’s Phase 2 trial for petrelintide showed 10.7% weight loss at week 42 — below analyst expectations of 12–15%
- Multiple banks including JPMorgan, Jefferies, UBS, and Barclays flagged the data as disappointing
- Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight
- Eli Lilly’s eloralintide and Novo Nordisk’s cagrilintide are seen as stronger rivals in the space
- No dose-response observed between top dose groups, raising questions about Phase 3 upside
Zealand Pharma (ZEAL) stock fell more than 32% on Friday after Phase 2 trial data for its obesity drug petrelintide came in below what Wall Street was hoping for.
The ZUPREME-1 trial, run in partnership with Roche, tested petrelintide in overweight or obese adults without type 2 diabetes. The highest dose produced a mean body weight loss of 10.7% at week 42 on an efficacy estimand basis.
The trial did meet its primary endpoint, showing statistically significant weight reductions at 28 weeks across all dose groups versus placebo. But the headline number wasn’t enough to impress investors.
Analysts had penciled in weight loss of roughly 12% to 15% to show meaningful competitiveness. The 10.7% result landed well short of that bar.
JPMorgan analyst Sophia Graeff Buhl Nielsen said the result “falls slightly short of expectations,” but added the data still “leaves scope for an attractive mid-teens weight loss profile to be achieved in Phase 3,” especially if more female participants — who showed stronger responses — are enrolled.
Jefferies flagged the result as likely to disappoint and said it came in below both its own estimate of 13% to 15% and the buy-side’s hope for above 15%. Analyst Lucy Codrington said petrelintide has “Wegovy-like efficacy, but with placebo-like tolerability,” describing it as “viable” but probably “2nd-best to LLY’s elora for now.”
One area where the drug performed well was tolerability. The highest-dose group showed no vomiting and low gastrointestinal side effects — a profile Codrington called “placebo-like.” That’s a genuine positive, but it didn’t move the needle enough on its own.
Cantor Fitzgerald Downgrades to Neutral
Cantor Fitzgerald cut its rating on Zealand Pharma to Neutral from Overweight, pointing to limited differentiation. The firm said petrelintide’s placebo-adjusted weight loss of roughly 9% at 42 weeks is similar to Novo Nordisk’s cagrilintide — and meaningfully below Eli Lilly’s eloralintide.
Cantor said the lack of a dose response is a concern, meaning there’s no clear evidence weight loss will improve in a later-stage trial. The firm now sees petrelintide delivering weight loss in the low teens, on par with cagrilintide.
With Eli Lilly already in Phase 3 with eloralintide and Novo Nordisk having moved cagrilintide monotherapy into Phase 3, Cantor said petrelintide could launch as a third-to-market option with limited differentiation. That’s a tough commercial position.
What’s Left to Watch
UBS noted the trial came in “clearly at the lower end of expectations” and raised questions about petrelintide’s potential as a monotherapy. However, the bank pointed to a combination approach — petrelintide paired with a small dose of Roche’s CT-388 — as a “still viable option,” given the drug’s tolerability profile.
There was also limited differentiation between the top dose groups, with weight loss ranging between 10.2% and 10.7%. JPMorgan said this may suggest limited incremental benefit from higher doses.
Detailed trial data is expected to be presented at a scientific conference later in 2026.
The stock was trading at $38.22 at last check, sitting roughly 51% below its 52-week high of $112.63.
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