TLDR
- Robinhood is planning to expand its prediction markets product to the UK and Europe after its successful US launch in partnership with Kalshi
- The company is in discussions with the UK Financial Conduct Authority to determine regulatory classification and compliance requirements
- Robinhood has already processed over 4 billion event contracts, with more than half occurring in Q3 alone
- Unlike decentralized platforms like Polymarket, Robinhood’s prediction markets run on traditional financial infrastructure, not blockchain
- The main regulatory challenge involves whether prediction markets are classified as futures products or fall under gambling laws in different jurisdictions
Robinhood is moving forward with plans to launch its prediction markets product in international markets following strong performance in the United States. The retail trading platform has begun conversations with regulators in the UK and Europe to explore how the service could operate under local laws.
Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all-time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone. And we’re just getting started. pic.twitter.com/13LxjqWaNt
— Vlad Tenev (@vladtenev) September 29, 2025
The company introduced its Prediction Markets Hub earlier in 2025. The platform allows users to trade contracts based on real-world events like interest rate decisions and sports outcomes. Robinhood partnered with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange, to offer these products to US customers.
JB Mackenzie serves as vice president and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood. He told Bloomberg that the company sees strong demand from users in Europe and the UK. The firm wants to ensure the product meets regulatory requirements in each market before launch.
Regulatory Questions Remain
One major hurdle involves how different countries classify prediction markets. In the United States, these products are treated as futures contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees them as financial instruments.
Other countries may view the same products differently. Some jurisdictions could classify them under gambling laws instead of financial regulations. This creates uncertainty about which agencies would provide oversight.
Robinhood has started talks with the UK Financial Conduct Authority. The company needs to understand where swap oversight would fall in the British market. Mackenzie said this question is central to determining how the product could be structured for UK users.
The regulatory landscape varies across Europe as well. Each country may have different rules about event-based trading products. Robinhood will need to navigate these differences to offer a compliant service across the region.
Strong US Performance Drives Expansion
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev shared data showing the platform has processed over 4 billion event contracts. More than half of that volume occurred in the third quarter alone. This rapid growth demonstrates user interest in prediction market products.
The platform’s event contracts are settled in US dollars through traditional financial systems. Robinhood does not use blockchain technology for its prediction markets. This differs from decentralized platforms that have gained popularity in the crypto space.
Polymarket represents the leading decentralized prediction market platform. Built on the Polygon blockchain, it reported billions in monthly trading volume during 2024. Activity peaked in November during the US presidential election cycle.
The decentralized platform uses smart contracts to automate trades and payouts. Users can speculate on outcomes ranging from political races to economic data releases. Polymarket recently drew interest from potential investors at a $9 billion valuation.
Robinhood remains active in crypto and blockchain sectors through other products. The company offers digital asset trading to its customers. It is also working toward tokenized stock offerings.
The expansion into international markets would open prediction market trading to a broader audience. Users in the UK and Europe would gain access to a regulated platform for event-based contracts. Robinhood has not announced specific launch dates for its international rollout.
