TLDR
- Shopify stock rose 5.88% to $160.19 as TD Cowen raised its price target to $156.
- Analyst cited 42% GMV growth in Europe, showing strong international expansion.
- Shopify’s AI partnership with OpenAI enhances its retail technology leadership.
- TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating, citing macroeconomic risks and valuation limits.
- SHOP stock has surged 105% over the past year, outperforming major indexes.
Shopify Inc. (NasdaqGS: SHOP) stock climbed 5.88% to $160.19 on October 3, 2025, after TD Cowen raised its price target to $156 from $130.
Shares traded at $158.17 in New York during the morning session and C$221.07 in Toronto, reflecting renewed investor optimism.
Analyst Daniel Chan highlighted Shopify’s ability to maintain growth while expanding internationally. Although Cowen maintained a Hold rating, the firm’s upgraded target reflected stronger-than-expected execution in key global markets.
International Momentum
Shopify’s performance in Europe has been a standout driver of growth. The company recorded a 42% increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) during the second quarter in European markets, signaling both market share gains and competitive strength.
Chan expects this momentum to continue as Shopify scales across regions where its market penetration remains relatively low. International expansion is central to Shopify’s strategy to diversify revenue streams beyond North America.
AI-Driven Opportunities
Another area of optimism comes from Shopify’s adoption of artificial intelligence. The company has partnered with OpenAI to integrate AI tools that enhance how retailers interact with customers.
According to Cowen’s analysis, Shopify’s platform-agnostic approach to AI ensures adaptability as consumer buying behaviors evolve. This positions the company to capitalize on the broader wave of AI-driven retail transformation while reinforcing its market leadership.
Risks and Valuation Considerations
Despite the strong growth narrative, Cowen cautioned that macroeconomic risks such as slowing consumer demand and inflationary pressures could temper momentum. Chan noted that investors appear to be pricing in long-term revenue growth of 25% annually and a free cash flow margin of 26% by 2033.
While achievable, these targets would imply that Shopify shares are trading near fair value, even with bullish assumptions. This explains why Cowen’s rating remained Hold despite the price target increase.
Performance Overview
Shopify has delivered exceptional shareholder returns over recent years. Year-to-date, the stock is up 50.15%, compared with the S&P/TSX Composite index’s 23.59%. Over the past year, SHOP gained 105% versus the index’s 26.95%.
Longer-term performance has been mixed. Shopify shares soared 477.05% over the last three years, far outpacing the S&P/TSX Composite’s 61.15%. However, over a five-year horizon, SHOP has risen only 55.68%, lagging behind the benchmark’s 87.83%.
This volatility reflects Shopify’s status as a high-growth company that continues to face cyclical and valuation-driven pressures.
Outlook
With its AI investments, strong European expansion, and global leadership in e-commerce, Shopify remains a stock to watch. While valuation limits upside in the near term, its long-term growth story is reinforced by global adoption trends and technological innovation.
