TLDR
- Polymarket predicts a 52% chance of Bitcoin trading below $100,000 this month.
- Bitcoin has dropped 8.26% in October after reaching a record $126,198 early in the month.
- Bearish sentiment on Polymarket surged 39% as traders expect more downside.
- Institutional buyers continue purchasing Bitcoin but have reduced their weekly volumes.
Bitcoin’s October performance has taken a sharp turn as market prediction platform Polymarket reports a 52% chance that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could fall below $100,000 this month. The data comes amid rising bearish sentiment and a steady decline in Bitcoin’s price, which has reversed early-month gains and shaken investor confidence after reaching a new all-time high earlier in October.
Growing Bearish Sentiment in the Crypto Market
According to Polymarket’s latest data, traders have become increasingly cautious as Bitcoin struggles to maintain its price momentum. The platform’s prediction market shows a 52% probability that Bitcoin will trade under $100,000 before the end of October. This reflects a growing pessimism that contrasts with the optimism that fueled the start of the month.
Polymarket also reported a 39% increase in bearish sentiment, suggesting more traders expect further declines. This change in market outlook follows Bitcoin’s sharp correction from its peak, as many investors are now seeking safer positions. Market analysts say that the reversal in sentiment may be linked to broader economic uncertainties and reduced trading volumes.
Price Performance and Market Correction
Bitcoin’s price has fallen 7.40% in recent days, extending its losses to 8.26% for the month, according to CoinMarketCap data. The cryptocurrency had reached a new all-time high of $126,198 on October 6 but has since failed to sustain the bullish momentum that characterized the start of the month.
The shift occurred around October 10, when the market saw a sharp drop that triggered widespread selling. Since then, the price has struggled to recover, with traders noting the absence of strong buying support. The market’s failure to maintain its “Uptober” trend—usually known for positive October gains—has raised questions about whether Bitcoin can stabilize before month-end.
Institutional Investors Maintain a Cautious Stance
Despite the downturn, institutional investors remain active, though with more restraint. Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, continues to purchase Bitcoin weekly but has reduced the size of its acquisitions due to the ongoing price weakness. The firm’s approach shows confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin while acknowledging the current market uncertainty.
Other institutions have also maintained their exposure but are reportedly waiting for more stable conditions before expanding their holdings. Analysts suggest that institutional buying may help prevent deeper corrections, though a break below $100,000 could still trigger new rounds of liquidations and selling pressure.
Market Outlook for the Rest of October
As October progresses, Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $100,000 remains uncertain. Traders and analysts are watching key support levels to assess whether the market can regain stability or face another major correction.
While the current price decline has reduced short-term optimism, some market participants believe that lower prices could attract new buyers in the coming weeks. However, the balance between cautious investors and risk-takers will likely determine Bitcoin’s direction for the rest of the month.
For now, Polymarket’s 52% probability signals a near-even split among traders, reflecting a fragile mood across the crypto market as it waits to see whether Bitcoin can avoid falling below the $100,000 mark
