TLDR
- Snowflake reports Q4 fiscal 2026 results after market close on February 25
- Options traders are pricing in a ~13% move in either direction post-earnings
- Analysts at TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, and Citi all cut price targets to $270 but kept Buy ratings
- SNOW stock is down 21.4% year-to-date, partly due to broader SaaS sector fears around AI disruption
- Snowflake signed a $200 million multi-year deal with OpenAI on February 2
Snowflake (SNOW) is heading into its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report on Wednesday, February 25, after market close — and traders are watching closely.
The stock has had a rough start to 2026, falling 21.4% year-to-date. It also dropped 30% after its Q3 results, which came in with a smaller-than-expected earnings beat and stirred concerns about AI disrupting the software sector.
Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of $0.27 for Q4, down from $0.30 in the same period last year. Revenue is forecast to climb 27.8% year-over-year to $1.26 billion.
That said, Snowflake has beaten earnings expectations in seven of the last eight quarters — so the bar for a surprise isn’t exactly low.
Options traders are pricing in a move of roughly 12.79% in either direction following the results. That’s nearly double the stock’s average post-earnings move of 6.7% over the past four quarters.
Something’s got people on edge.
Analyst Price Target Cuts
Three major analysts trimmed their price targets ahead of the print, all landing at the same number: $270.
TD Cowen’s Derrick Wood kept his Buy rating and pointed to positive signals including growth in user counts, data volumes, workload shifts, and AI inference activity. He noted Snowflake is holding up well against the AI disruption narrative hitting other software names.
Morgan Stanley’s Sanjit Singh also held his Buy rating at a $270 target. His checks showed steady demand despite the broader SaaS sell-off, and he called this a good entry point heading into 2026. Singh also highlighted Elastic (ESTC) as a pre-earnings pick alongside Snowflake.
Citi’s Tyler Radke lowered his target from $300 to $270 as well, blaming multiple compression across the software space. He called the 30% post-Q3 pullback overdone and described Snowflake’s consumption-based model as “one of the stronger AI-proof consumption business models.”
OpenAI Partnership
On February 2, Snowflake announced a multi-year, $200 million deal with OpenAI. The agreement gives Snowflake’s 12,600 global customers direct access to OpenAI models through Cortex AI, Snowflake’s native engine for generative AI and machine learning.
The partnership covers deployments across Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform.
The TipRanks consensus on SNOW is Strong Buy, based on 31 Buy ratings and 3 Holds. The average price target sits at $269.86, implying around 56.4% upside from current levels.
Q4 results are due after market close on Wednesday, February 25.
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