TLDR
- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warns Bitcoin’s bear market may last until early 2027
- His forecast is based on the CryptoQuant PnL Index Signal, a 365-day moving average
- The bear trend began in October 2025, matching 18-month cycles seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022
- Bitcoin was trading near $73,000 with $223.9 million in crypto liquidations in 24 hours
- A recovery signal requires unrealized profits to rise while realized profits fall — not yet seen
Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, says Bitcoin’s current bear market may not end until early 2027. He posted his warning on X, backed by data from CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Signal.
“Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months,” Ju wrote. “Since the trend change started in October 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors' PnL typically falls for about 18 months.
Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.
The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We're not there yet. pic.twitter.com/fQyIRLu8vv
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 29, 2026
What the PnL Index Shows
The PnL Index Signal is a 365-day moving average that tracks investor profitability cycles. The indicator peaked in late 2025, closely matching patterns seen before the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Each of those previous cycles saw steep, sustained declines after the signal peaked. Ju says the current cycle looks the same.
For the trend to reverse, Ju says two things need to happen at the same time. Unrealized profits must rise while realized profits fall. That would signal selling pressure is running out and buyers are taking control.
“The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We’re not there yet,” he wrote.
Bitcoin Price and Market Pressure
Bitcoin was trading near $73,000 at the time of the post. That is roughly 30% below its 2025 highs.
Total open interest in the derivatives market dropped to around $55.26 billion. Crypto liquidations hit $223.9 million in 24 hours, with more than $30 million in long positions wiped out.
Bitcoin’s market cap also slipped to around $1.46 trillion. That puts it behind Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and several other major companies and commodities. Gold remains the world’s most valuable asset at nearly $31 trillion.
Macro conditions are adding to the pressure. US PCE inflation came in at 3.8% year-over-year in April, lifting the odds of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. US-Iran tensions have also rattled global markets and weighed on risk assets like crypto.
What Could Trigger a Recovery
Ju pointed to two key demand drivers needed for a sustained Bitcoin recovery. The first is renewed inflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The second is increased activity from institutional over-the-counter desks. Both have slowed in recent months.
On-chain data shows capital is still flowing into Bitcoin, but prices are not responding. Ju says that gap between inflows and price performance is a classic bear market sign.
Not all analysts agree with Ju’s timeline. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck said earlier this year that Bitcoin may be forming a cycle bottom, pointing to options market stabilization and slowing long-term holder selling. Coinbase’s April 2026 report suggested price support could emerge between May and June.
Key resistance for Bitcoin sits at $74,200 and $74,500, where large sell orders are clustered, according to CoinGlass.
