TLDR
- Q4 2025 revenue fell 17.6% year-over-year to $1.87 million, missing the $2.33 million Wall Street forecast
- Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh cut his price target from $50 to $43 but maintained a Buy rating, citing 142% upside potential
- Rigetti achieved 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds, potentially 3–5x faster than competitors
- The company holds ~$590 million in cash and secured an $8.4 million order from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing
- Rigetti is targeting 150+ physical qubits by December 2026 and 1,000+ by end of 2027
Rigetti Computing had a rough fourth quarter on the revenue front, but its technical progress tells a different story. Here’s where things stand.
Q4 2025 revenue came in at $1.87 million, down 17.6% from the same period last year and short of Wall Street’s $2.33 million estimate. The quarter before that posted $2.3 million, making the sequential drop hard to ignore.
Gross margins slipped too, falling to 35% from 44% in Q4 2024. The company attributed this to contract mix rather than any structural issue.
Rigetti Computing, $RGTI, Q4-25.
Still early, heavy investment phase.
📊 Adj. EPS: -$0.03 🟢
💰 Revenue: $1.87M 🔴
📈 Net Loss: $18.2MQuantum progress continues, but operating loss reached $22.60M.
How long until commercialization scales? pic.twitter.com/8zcWmjubUL
— EarningsTime (@Earnings_Time) March 4, 2026
Operating losses widened to $22.6 million in the quarter, up from $18.5 million a year earlier. Total operating expenses rose to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, driven largely by R&D spending.
On the bottom line, Rigetti posted a loss of $0.03 per share, which was in line with consensus estimates.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh responded by trimming his price target from $50 to $43 — a 14% cut. He kept his Buy rating intact.
Even at $43, the target implies roughly 142% upside from current levels. Rakesh’s price target is based on about 9x his projected sales 30 months out, assuming Rigetti captures 10% of the quantum computing market.
Q1 Outlook and Near-Term Contracts
Rakesh is forecasting Q1 2026 revenue of $3 million — a 62% sequential jump and a 106% year-over-year increase. That growth is tied largely to Rigetti’s $5.7 million Novera quantum processor contract.
The company is also set to deliver its first Cepheus-1 108-qubit system to India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing in the second half of 2026, a deal worth $8.4 million.
Rigetti’s cash position sits at approximately $590 million, giving the company runway to execute its roadmap without immediate financing pressure.
Technical Progress
On the hardware side, Rigetti achieved 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity using a new adiabatic CZ method at 28 nanoseconds. The company says this is potentially 3 to 5 times faster than competing approaches.
Rigetti has already deployed an 84-qubit monolithic chip system and a 36-qubit chiplet-based system to the cloud.
The company operates Fab One, described as the industry’s first dedicated and integrated quantum device manufacturing facility.
Key partnerships include Riverlane for error correction and Nvidia for integrating quantum processors with GPUs and CPUs via NVLink, using CUDA-Q software for hybrid systems.
Rigetti is targeting more than 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and over 1,000 by the end of 2027. Quantum advantage itself is projected to be roughly three years away, according to the company.
On TipRanks, RGTI has a Moderate Buy consensus based on five Buy ratings and two Hold ratings. The average price target across analysts sits at $37.60, implying around 111.7% upside from current levels.
Over the past year, RGTI stock has gained over 117%.
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