TLDR
- Oracle reports Q3 FY26 earnings on March 10 after market close
- Wall Street expects EPS of $1.71 (+16.3% YoY) and revenue of ~$16.92 billion (+20% YoY)
- OCI revenue grew 68% in Q2 FY26, with management targeting 77% growth for full-year FY26
- Oracle’s RPO hit $523 billion in Q2, up 438% year-over-year
- ORCL stock is down over 20% YTD; Deutsche Bank cut its price target from $375 to $300
Oracle heads into Tuesday’s Q3 FY26 earnings report carrying a lot of weight. The stock is down more than 20% year-to-date, sitting roughly 50% below its September 2024 peak. With results dropping after the bell on March 10, investors are watching three numbers very closely.
Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $1.71, up 16.3% year-over-year. Revenue is forecast at around $16.92 billion, which would represent roughly 20% growth. Last quarter, Oracle missed revenue estimates, reporting $16.06 billion — up 14.2% year-on-year but short of expectations.
It’s also worth noting Oracle is the first major data and analytics software company to report this season. There’s no comparable peer data to lean on going in.
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: The Number Everyone’s Watching
OCI is the engine of Oracle’s growth story right now. Revenue growth has been accelerating for several straight quarters — 49% in Q3 FY25, 52% in Q4, 55% in Q1 FY26, and 68% in Q2 FY26.
Management expects OCI to grow around 77% for the full fiscal year, reaching about $18 billion in revenue. Long-term, Oracle is targeting $144 billion in total cloud revenue by fiscal 2030.
That’s a big number. And it’s the main reason most analysts haven’t given up on the stock despite this year’s pullback.
Oracle’s remaining performance obligations — essentially contracted future revenue — came in at $523 billion in Q2 FY26, up 438% year-over-year. That backlog shows strong demand for cloud and AI infrastructure deals.
The Q3 RPO figure will be watched closely. Any slowdown there could spook investors.
Capital Spending Raises Eyebrows
The other side of Oracle’s growth story is the cost. Oracle expects to spend around $50 billion in capital expenditures in fiscal 2026.
Future operating lease commitments have also surged to approximately $248 billion as of last November — well above cloud rivals Microsoft and Amazon. That’s a lot of financial commitment for a company that is still building out its infrastructure base.
As a result, Oracle’s trailing free cash flow has turned negative, even though operating cash flow remains above $22 billion. Investors will be scrutinizing capex guidance closely for any signs of a slowdown — or an escalation.
Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick cut his price target on ORCL from $375 to $300 on Monday, though he kept his Buy rating. He cited concerns around cash burn related to Oracle’s AI buildout, but pointed to two positive signals: Oracle’s successful unsecured investment grade bond offering in February, and OpenAI closing a $110 billion private funding round.
Overall Wall Street consensus remains a Strong Buy — 25 Buys, 6 Holds over the past three months. The average price target sits at $270.14, implying roughly 76.6% upside from current levels.
Oracle reports after market close on March 10.
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