TLDR
- Matt Hougan said Circle could be worth about $75 billion by 2030.
- He based the view on stablecoin market growth, USDC share, and margins.
- His model assumed a $1.9 trillion stablecoin market by 2030.
- Circle shares fell over 20% Tuesday after CLARITY Act concerns surfaced.
- USDC holds about 25% of stablecoin supply and more share in regulated markets.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said Circle could reach a valuation of about $75 billion by 2030. He made the case even after a sharp fall in Circle shares this week. His view focused on long-term stablecoin use rather than near-term market fears.
Hougan said Circle’s value depends on three core factors. These are the stablecoin market size, USDC’s market share, and long-term margins. He said recent policy concerns do not change the main growth story.
Hougan lays out long-term valuation case
In his weekly memo, Hougan used what he called “conservative assumptions” for Circle’s outlook. He projected the stablecoin market could reach $1.9 trillion by 2030. He also assumed Circle would keep a 25% share through USDC.
He added a long-term margin estimate of 0.8% after distribution costs. Based on that model, Circle could generate about $3.8 billion in revenue. Net income could reach about $2.7 billion under the same framework.
UPDATE: 📊 Bitwise says Circle’s roughly 20% selloff is overblown and sees CRCL reaching a $75 billion valuation by 2030. https://t.co/d8JrxXTjj2 pic.twitter.com/NZPnW9JXAE
— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) March 25, 2026
Hougan said those numbers could support a valuation near $75 billion. He based that view on standard equity market multiples. His memo did not rely on short-term price action.
The note framed Circle as a company tied to broader stablecoin adoption. It also treated market growth as the main driver of value. That placed less weight on short-term political or trading pressure.
Recent selloff follows regulatory concerns
Circle shares fell more than 20% on Tuesday. The move came after reports about possible provisions in the CLARITY Act. Lawmakers are said to be reviewing limits on yield-like rewards tied to stablecoin balances.
Those rewards have helped USDC distribution through partners. Any restriction could affect how issuers attract users and allocate incentives. That issue appeared to weigh on investor sentiment.
By Wednesday morning, Circle shares had risen about 2% on the day. The stock was trading near $103, according to the report provided. Even so, the earlier drop showed how quickly policy headlines can move the stock.
Hougan did not directly address the share decline in detail. He also did not respond to the proposed legislative language point by point. Instead, he kept the focus on long-term demand for stablecoins.
Stablecoin utility remains central to Circle’s case
Hougan argued that stablecoin growth is driven by utility, not yield. He pointed to faster payments, wider access, and links to financial systems. Those features, he said, remain the core reasons for adoption.
He also noted Circle’s position in regulated markets. USDC now holds about one-quarter of total stablecoin supply. It also has a larger share in compliant onshore markets, based on the memo.
That market position may become more valuable if new rules favor regulated issuers. Such a shift could send more users and capital toward firms with stronger compliance footing. Circle may benefit if that trend continues.
For now, Hougan’s case rests on scale, share, and margins. His argument suggests the recent selloff does not change Circle’s long-term path. The memo presents Circle as a major player in a growing stablecoin market.
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