TLDR
- UBS cut its price target on Oklo (OKLO) to $60 from $95, keeping a Neutral rating
- The cut reflects higher execution risk and capital cost concerns on nuclear projects
- Oklo broke ground on its Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory in 2025
- The company signed a deal with Meta Platforms to supply 1.2 gigawatts of electricity in Ohio
- At $55, Oklo carries a ~$9.4B market cap despite projections of just $0.1M in revenue for 2026
Oklo has yet to generate revenue. The Aurora powerhouse is targeting a 2028 start, and the Meta deal won’t reach full capacity until 2034.
UBS revised its valuation model, dropping from 20x to 15x its 2034 estimated EV/EBITDA, discounted seven years at Oklo’s cost of equity. The firm said the lower multiple better reflects the risk profile of early-stage nuclear development and now aligns with the broader peer average.
The reduction in the multiple amounts to roughly a five-turn decrease from what UBS was previously using relative to Oklo’s nuclear peers.
Oklo holds more cash than debt, with a current ratio of 49.08 — a buffer that matters for a company that is still pre-revenue. Analysts don’t expect it to turn a profit this year.
Craig-Hallum also lowered its target, to $71 from $87, citing capital needs. Needham cut its target to $73 from $135 on lower deployment expectations but kept a Buy rating. William Blair kept an Outperform, pointing to the Aurora reactor’s first design approval from the Department of Energy.
Aurora and Meta Deal Are Key Milestones
Oklo’s CEO Jacob DeWitte was recently named to the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. The Aurora powerhouse received its first design approval from the Department of Energy under the Reactor Pilot Program.
The Meta deal involves building powerhouses in Ohio to deliver 1.2 gigawatts of electricity. Meta is prepaying for the energy, giving Oklo early-stage capital before it has any meaningful revenue stream.
Revenue estimates sit at $0.1M for 2026, rising to $3.3M in 2027, then building to $228M in 2030 and $1.1B in 2031. Even if those projections are met, the stock at $55 would trade at roughly 8.5x 2031 revenue.
Valuation Remains a Sticking Point
The stock is down about 50% over the past six months, though it’s still up roughly 109% over the past year. It sits about 68% below its late 2025 all-time high of $193.84.
At current prices, Oklo’s market cap is around $9.4 billion — a high bar for a business with no revenue and projects still years from operating.
InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis suggests the stock may be overvalued at current levels.
The 52-week low stands at $17.42. Average daily volume is approximately 10 million shares. The most recent analyst price targets range from $60 (UBS, Neutral) to $73 (Needham, Buy), with Craig-Hallum at $71 (Hold) and William Blair maintaining an Outperform.
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