TLDR
- ARK Invest will use Kalshi prediction market data to inform its investment decisions
- The data will be used for research, risk management, and hedging portfolio positions
- ARK CEO Cathie Wood called prediction markets “a natural next step for innovation in financial research”
- The US Federal Reserve and Cornell University have also flagged prediction market data as valuable
- Kalshi was recently valued at $22 billion after a $1 billion funding round
ARK Invest, the asset management firm led by Cathie Wood, has announced it will use data from Kalshi, a prediction markets platform, to help guide its investment decisions.
At @ARKInvest, we’re always looking for new tools that can sharpen our research and improve how we make investment decisions. Prediction markets are not just a new derivatives market — they represent a powerful new way to quantify risk and surface forward-looking insights.
We’ve… https://t.co/BLFzORsaVK
— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) March 26, 2026
The firm said it plans to use the data in three main ways: to supplement its existing research with real-time market expectations, to track performance indicators like trading volume, and to manage risk around specific events.
ARK will also use Kalshi to hedge against outcomes that could affect its portfolio, including macroeconomic risks and sector-level exposure.
“We believe these signals can enhance our research process and provide valuable context around key drivers across disruptive sectors,” Wood said in a statement Thursday.
ARK Director of Research Nick Grous described prediction markets as offering “some of the purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes.”
ARK has also been working directly with Kalshi to list new markets on topics the firm tracks closely.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed that several of those markets are already live on the platform, including non-farm payroll markets and deficit-to-GDP ratio markets.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets allow users to trade on the outcome of future events. Because real money is at stake, the theory is that prices reflect genuine, unbiased expectations about what will happen.
Kalshi is one of the largest regulated prediction markets in the US. Its main rival, Polymarket, operates primarily in crypto.
Prediction markets surpassed $10 billion in monthly trading volume last year and have drawn growing interest from institutional players.
Other Institutions Are Paying Attention
ARK is not alone in seeing value in this data. Last month, researchers at the US Federal Reserve published findings arguing that Kalshi data could better measure macroeconomic expectations in real time than existing tools.
The Fed researchers said Kalshi markets provide “a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark” useful to both researchers and policymakers.
Cornell University has also studied prediction market data, using figures from Polymarket to analyze how traders responded to political events in real time, including the 2024 presidential debates and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
Kalshi recently closed a $1 billion strategic funding round that valued the company at $22 billion.
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