TLDR
- US stock futures rose after Trump signaled willingness to end the Iran war without full Strait of Hormuz reopening
- S&P 500 futures gained 0.8%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.7%, Dow futures jumped 0.9%
- Oil crossed $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022; VIX remains above 30
- Evercore ISI warns investors are unprepared for a “stability” scenario and names stocks like Microsoft, Amazon, and Caterpillar as top picks
- Fed Chair Powell said private credit contagion risk is low and inflation appears contained
US stock futures climbed Tuesday after President Trump reportedly told administration officials he may be willing to end the US-Israeli war in Iran without demanding a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump had previously threatened to reopen the strait by force. The shift in tone sent futures higher across the board.
Contracts tied to the S&P 500 rose 0.8%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.7%. Dow Jones futures jumped 0.9%.
Despite the futures rally, investor anxiety remains high. The CBOE Volatility Index has stayed above 30 for several sessions, pointing to continued uncertainty in markets.
Oil prices also reflect that tension. West Texas Intermediate crude closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 as the conflict entered its fifth week.
Communication from Washington has been mixed. While some signals point to diplomatic progress, Trump also claimed the US may move to seize control of Iran’s oil reserves.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added some calm on the monetary policy front. He said the risk of contagion in private credit is low and that inflation pressures appear contained, suggesting no immediate rate hikes are coming.
Investors are now watching Tuesday’s consumer confidence reading and the February JOLTS report for more data on the state of the US economy.
Evercore Names Stocks to Watch If Stability Returns
Investment bank Evercore ISI says investors may be too focused on downside risks and not ready for a potential stabilizing backdrop.
“There is one scenario investors may be unprepared for… Stability,” wrote strategist Julian Emanuel.
Evercore’s stability scenario includes a Middle East ceasefire, oil pulling back toward $88 a barrel, and the Fed holding or cutting rates with the 10-year Treasury yield staying between 4.0% and 4.6%.
In technology, analysts favor Microsoft and Snowflake as core positions, with Salesforce and ServiceNow also highlighted.
Amazon is flagged as trading at a three-year low on a price-to-earnings basis, with analysts seeing a potential fundamental turning point this year.
In semiconductors, ON Semiconductor, Microchip Technology, and NXP Semiconductors are named as recovery plays if auto demand picks up.
Airlines and Industrials Also in Focus
Airlines are called out in the consumer sector. Delta’s March sales are running 25% above last year. United Airlines has recorded its ten largest booking weeks ever this quarter.
Caterpillar is highlighted for backlog visibility. Analysts say its 2026 backlog coverage is the highest in over 15 years.
Fintech names including Affirm, Adyen, and Block have sold off sharply but Evercore says their fundamentals remain intact. The bank’s payments analyst called the drops a sign of “excessive negativity” being priced in.
Other names on Evercore’s watchlist include PulteGroup, Danaher, Align Technology, and Union Pacific.
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