TLDR
- KeyBanc raised its Amazon price target from $285 to $325, implying ~30% upside from current levels.
- Analyst Justin Patterson cited AWS accelerating to ~30% growth as the key driver.
- AI tailwinds from Anthropic, grocery demand, and Amazon Leo flagged as additional growth levers.
- Near-term caution flagged on operating income due to fuel costs and the Iran conflict disrupting shipping.
- Amazon slipped 0.9% to $248.28 on Monday, just 1.4% below its November 2025 record close.
Amazon got a vote of confidence from KeyBanc on Sunday, but the market wasn’t in a buying mood.
KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson lifted his price target on Amazon (AMZN) to $325 from $285, keeping an Overweight rating. At Monday’s close of $248.28, that target implies roughly 30% upside.
Patterson’s core thesis centers on AWS. He described the cloud unit turning into a roughly 30% grower as “the story of the quarter,” pointing to capacity ramps and a string of client wins.
Anthropic gets a specific mention. KeyBanc estimates AWS accounts for around 60% of Anthropic’s total spending, with the AI firm’s rapid recurring revenue growth seen as “a meaningful tailwind” for the cloud unit.
Patterson also bumped his 2026 sales estimate by 1% and his 2027 projection by 2%. He now sees earnings per share approaching $10 in 2027, setting his $325 target at 33 times that figure.
AWS Not the Only Story
The analyst flagged three other growth drivers worth watching. Grocery demand is holding up well. Amazon Leo, the satellite internet service, is on the launchpad. And Amazon’s agreed acquisition of Globalstar hands it additional spectrum to work with.
“Given early large customer wins, M&A, and more successful launches, we believe Amazon Leo is well-positioned to gain traction as an alternative option in the market,” Patterson wrote.
Other banks are broadly aligned. Truist Securities has a $285 target on the back of AWS AI adoption. TD Cowen sits at $300, expecting Q1 2026 revenue to beat consensus.
Iran Conflict Adds Near-Term Pressure
Not everything is clean. The Iran war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed fuel costs higher. Patterson expects the conflict to weigh on Amazon’s second-quarter guidance.
Amazon has already responded. Earlier this month it applied a 3.5% fuel surcharge on third-party sellers, which Patterson sees as a partial cushion.
KeyBanc is also cautious on first-half operating income more broadly, citing gas prices and investment in Amazon Leo as timing headwinds.
On Monday, AMZN fell 0.9% to $248.28 as U.S.-Iran tensions pressured the broader market.
The stock ended last Friday at $250.56, just 1.4% below its record closing high from November 2025.
Amazon is scheduled to report first-quarter results on April 29.
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