TLDR
- Qualcomm has gained for nine straight sessions — its longest winning streak since November 2023 — but is still down 20% in 2026.
- The stock’s 25% drop in Q1 2026 was its worst quarterly performance since 2002.
- Memory chip shortages are squeezing Qualcomm’s handset customers, particularly in China, limiting their ability to build phones.
- Analysts have downgraded QCOM at least eight times this year; it now holds its worst analyst consensus since at least 2008.
- Qualcomm reports Q2 earnings on April 29, but in 15 of the last quarters, only two earnings releases produced share-price gains.
Qualcomm (QCOM) has been on a nine-day winning streak — its best run since November 2023 — climbing about 11% in that stretch. But step back and the picture looks very different. The stock is still down 20% for 2026, and earlier this month it touched its lowest price since 2023.
The Q1 2026 drop of 25% was Qualcomm’s worst quarter since 2002. That context makes the recent bounce feel less like a comeback and more like a breather.
The core problem is memory. Soaring demand for DRAM chips from AI data center buildouts has left makers of consumer devices short on supply and paying higher prices. Since late August, a spot price index for DRAM has risen nearly 500%. That’s a direct headwind for Qualcomm, which relies heavily on smartphone makers.
“There’s no way around the fact that memory constraints are a real challenge in the near term,” said Ethan Feller, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research. “The growth picture for both this year and next year is just not very good.”
Analyst Cuts Keep Coming
Qualcomm has received at least eight downgrades in 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, only 17 now have buy ratings and three have sell ratings — the weakest consensus since at least 2008. Compare that to Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron, which each carry buy ratings from over 90% of analysts.
JPMorgan and BNP Paribas both cut QCOM last week. BNP wrote that the memory pricing squeeze “is likely going to remain a headwind” into the first half of next year and that they “see no relief for QCOM in the short to medium term.”
Earnings estimates have also been revised lower. For the current quarter, analysts expect EPS of $2.57 — down 9.8% year-over-year. Revenue estimates for the full fiscal year sit at $43.39 billion, reflecting a 1.7% decline. Zacks rates the stock a #5 Strong Sell.
A Diversification Story That Still Needs Time
CEO Cristiano Amon has positioned Qualcomm as more than a phone chip company, pushing into autos, PCs, and data centers. But those new markets aren’t yet large enough to fill the gap left by weakness in handsets, especially as Apple phases out Qualcomm’s modem chips from iPhones.
The stock has fallen roughly 40% from its June 2024 record high. It now trades at about 12 times estimated earnings — below its 10-year average of around 15. The broader semiconductor index trades at around 22 times earnings.
Some investors see value at these levels. “The market has given Qualcomm some pretty substantial headwinds, but it has still executed well in a tough market,” said Steve Bruce of Bruce Wood Capital. “Over the longer-term it looks attractive.”
Qualcomm is expected to post Q2 results on April 29. The stock fell 8.5% after its last earnings report in February, when the company issued a weaker-than-expected forecast.
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