TLDR
- Morgan Stanley upgraded ARWR to Overweight with a $100 price target, up from $78
- Phase 3 data for plozasiran in severe hypertriglyceridemia expected in Q3 2026
- BofA also raised its price target, modeling a ~$3 billion peak market for the drug
- Morgan Stanley analyst targets peak sales of $3.2 billion for plozasiran, up from $1.7 billion
- ARWR is up 8.2% year-to-date and 481% over the past 12 months
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) has had a remarkable run over the past year, up 481%. On Tuesday, the stock added another 3.9%, closing at $71.92 after Morgan Stanley upgraded it and raised its price target to $100.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc., ARWR
That $100 target implies another 39% upside from current levels. Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Ulz moved the stock to Overweight from Equal-weight, citing an upcoming Phase 3 data readout he expects to “unlock a multibillion-dollar opportunity that remains underappreciated.”
The catalyst is plozasiran, Arrowhead’s lead drug candidate being studied in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG) — a condition where abnormally high blood fat levels raise the risk of cardiovascular disease and pancreatitis.
Phase 3 data is due in Q3 2026. Based on prior results and a study with a comparable patient population, Ulz said he expects positive results. A good readout would mark a turning point for the company.
Morgan Stanley wasn’t the only firm moving its target higher. BofA also raised its price target, modeling a peak market of around $3 billion for plozasiran in SHTG — suggesting analysts are becoming more comfortable with the drug’s commercial ceiling.
Ulz’s own peak sales estimate moved from $1.7 billion to $3.2 billion. That’s nearly double, and it reflects growing confidence in how broadly the drug could be used, particularly in high-risk pancreatitis patients.
Competition From Ionis
Arrowhead isn’t alone in this space. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) is also targeting SHTG with olezarsen. Ulz acknowledged that Ionis “has set the price” in this market.
Olezarsen is currently only approved for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, but it holds Breakthrough Therapy designation. A supplemental application is under accelerated review with a target completion date of June 30.
Despite the competition, Ulz sees room for both drugs. He believes plozasiran has strong standalone potential, especially among the pancreatitis patient population.
Pipeline and NDA Filing
Arrowhead submitted its first New Drug Application for plozasiran in late 2024. That filing marked a transition for the company — from a research-focused biotech toward becoming a commercial-stage business.
The company has deep roots in RNA interference. It acquired Roche’s RNAi business in 2011, then picked up RNAi assets from Novartis in 2015. Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen unit was also a partner until 2023, when Janssen scaled back its infectious disease and vaccine programs.
Of the 12 analyst firms tracked by FactSet covering ARWR, 10 rate it at Buy or equivalent. Just two — Leerink Partners and Bernstein Research — rate it at Hold.
ARWR is up 8.2% year-to-date. Ionis, by comparison, is down 6.2% in 2026 and up 156% over the past 12 months.
The company’s current market cap sits at $9.94 billion.
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