TLDR
- Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 have dropped to 38%, a 23% fall
- Senator Bernie Moreno says crypto bill markup will happen by end of May
- Galaxy Digital gives the bill a 50% chance of passing this year
- The American Bankers Association wants 60 more days to comment on stablecoin rules
- TD Cowen flagged five extra obstacles beyond the stablecoin yield debate
The US Senate is struggling to agree on a timeline for the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill that already passed the House in July 2025. Progress has stalled over disagreements between banks and the crypto industry, and the window to pass it this year is getting smaller.
🚨JUST IN: CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILL BY END OF MAY
Sen. Bernie Moreno said he expects the legislation to pass by the end of May, warning missing the deadline could shelve the Clarity Act indefinitely, per Eleanor Terrett. pic.twitter.com/7SdystygS2
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) April 23, 2026
Senator Bernie Moreno told an audience in Washington, D.C. on April 22 that he expects the markup to happen “by the end of May.” He pushed back on banks’ objections to stablecoin yields, calling the opposition “a lot of noise in the system” that is “completely fake.”
Senator Thom Tillis has recommended that Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott schedule the markup in May, saying negotiators need more time to work out a deal between banks and the crypto sector on stablecoin yields.
Pro-crypto voices are pushing back. Senator Cynthia Lummis and crypto group The Digital Chamber have urged the Senate Banking Committee to schedule a markup as soon as possible.
The American Bankers Association sent a letter on Tuesday to the Treasury Department, the FDIC, FinCEN, and Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. It asked for 60 extra days to comment on rules tied to the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill, which was signed into law in July 2025.
The ABA said the rules from other agencies depend heavily on the final outcome of Office of the Comptroller of the Currency rulemaking, making it impossible to comment meaningfully before that rule is finalized.
Prediction markets have reacted to the delays. Polymarket now shows a 38% chance the CLARITY Act passes in 2026, down 23 percentage points. Kalshi puts the odds at 14% before July and 39% before August.
The odds of President Trump signing the bill before 2027 have risen slightly to 58%, up from 53% earlier this week.
What Galaxy Digital Is Saying
Crypto firm Galaxy Digital put the odds of the bill passing this year at roughly 50-50. Head of Research Alex Thorn said multiple unresolved issues remain, including stablecoin yield language, DeFi rules, ethics provisions, and developer protections.
The bill still has to clear the Senate Banking Committee, pass a 60-vote Senate floor vote, and then be reconciled with versions from the Agriculture Committee and the House.
The Senate Calendar Problem
Galaxy Digital noted that the Senate’s working schedule before the August recess is tight. Senators are in session through April, return May 11 through May 22, and then have only three weeks each in June and July before a five-week recess in August.
Thorn warned that if the markup slips past mid-May, the odds of passing the bill this year drop sharply.
TD Cowen added five more obstacles to the list: a lack of commissioners at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, prediction market rules, scrutiny of Trump-linked World Liberty Financial, Iran’s reported use of crypto for Strait of Hormuz tolls raising anti-money laundering concerns, and the Credit Card Competition Act.
Senator Lummis has warned that if the bill fails this year, it may not be revisited until 2030.
