TLDR
- PLTR is down 20% year-to-date, sitting 31% below its November 2025 record high of $207.18
- Rosenblatt reiterated a Buy rating with a $200 price target, implying 40% upside
- Q1 earnings are due May 4; Wall Street expects revenue up 74% to $1.54 billion and EPS of $0.28, up 115% year-over-year
- The Department of Defense’s budget includes a $2.3 billion request for Palantir’s Maven Smart System
- Wall Street consensus is Moderate Buy: 14 Buys, 5 Holds, 2 Sells — average price target $194.06
Palantir has had a rough 2026. After three straight years of big gains, the stock is down about 20% this year and is trading 31% below its record closing high of $207.18 from November 3, 2025.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
On Friday, PLTR advanced 1% to $143.09, partially recovering from a 7.2% drop on Thursday during a broad software selloff triggered by key earnings reports elsewhere in the sector.
The stock ended the week down 2.3%.
Investor anxiety has centered on a few things: a stretched valuation, geopolitical uncertainty, and fears that AI startups could undercut Palantir’s core business. Short seller Michael Burry added fuel to that last concern earlier this month, claiming Anthropic is “eating Palantir’s lunch.”
The Swiss National Bank also came under pressure this week. Campaigners from Minneapolis urged the SNB to sell its $1.1 billion PLTR stake, citing Palantir’s role in the U.S. immigration crackdown. SNB chairman Martin Schlegel defended the bank’s investment strategy, saying the foreign-currency portfolio exists to support monetary policy.
Despite the noise, several analysts are staying bullish.
Rosenblatt Holds Firm at $200
Rosenblatt analyst John McPeake reiterated a Buy rating and kept his $200 price target on Friday. He argued that Palantir is one of the few software companies seeing real, AI-driven revenue growth rather than simply selling AI add-ons.
Over the past four quarters, Palantir posted year-over-year revenue growth of 70%, 63%, 48%, and 39%. Wall Street now expects Q1 2026 revenue to rise 74% to $1.54 billion, with EPS of $0.28 — up 115% year-over-year.
McPeake expects the momentum from Q4 to carry into the first half of 2026, and he sees government revenue growing 58% this year and 53% next year — ahead of the analyst consensus of 45% in 2026 and 32% in 2027.
On Wednesday, Palantir announced a $300 million purchase agreement with the U.S. Department of Agriculture to support the National Farm Security Action Plan.
Defense Budget Gives Multiyear Visibility
William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma reiterated a Buy rating, pointing to the Department of Defense’s budget request, which includes a $2.3 billion funding line for Palantir’s Maven Smart System.
DiPalma said that figure provides multiyear visibility relative to his estimated $500 million-plus revenue run-rate for that program. He added that while PLTR looks expensive on a sales multiple, it looks “reasonable” when valued on free cash flow.
D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria kept a Hold rating — not out of concern about the business, but purely on valuation. He said a recent webinar with a Palantir partner actually increased his confidence in the company’s competitive position, noting that demand for PLTR’s platform has grown since the start of the “AI craze.”
Wall Street’s overall consensus heading into May 4 earnings: Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $194.06 — implying about 36% upside from current levels.
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