TLDR
- Cisco (CSCO) dropped 4.4% on Friday, trading as low as $112.86, on volume more than double the daily average.
- The company beat Q3 estimates with $1.06 EPS on $15.84 billion in revenue, up 12% year-over-year.
- Analysts hold a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $123.14; KeyCorp lifted its target to $130.
- GuruFocus flags CSCO as overvalued, with the stock trading 66.6% above its GF Value estimate of $68.30.
- Insiders sold roughly $7.2 million in stock over the past three months, with no reported buying activity.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell 4.4% on Friday, touching a low of $112.86 before closing at $113.77. The prior close had been $118.97.
Volume told its own story. About 50.1 million shares changed hands — more than double the average daily volume of 24 million. That kind of trading activity usually means something caught the market’s attention.
The drop comes despite a solid recent earnings print. In its most recent quarter, Cisco reported EPS of $1.06, beating the $1.03 consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $15.84 billion, ahead of the $15.56 billion expected, and up 12% from the same period last year.
Cisco also gave guidance for Q4 2026 of $1.16 to $1.18 EPS, and full-year FY2026 guidance of $4.27 to $4.29 EPS.
A $0.42 quarterly dividend was declared, payable July 22 to shareholders of record on July 6. That works out to a 1.5% annualized yield.
Analyst Targets Still Lean Positive
Analyst sentiment has been broadly positive despite Friday’s move. KeyCorp reiterated an overweight rating and raised its target to $130. Bank of America has a buy rating with a $150 target. Goldman Sachs sits at neutral with a $125 target. Barclays rates it equal weight at $121.
The overall consensus is Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $123.14 across 25 analysts — two with Strong Buy, 15 with Buy, and eight with Hold.
CICC Research bumped its target to $125 with an outperform rating in May. Zacks, however, cut the stock from strong buy to hold back in April.
The stock has a market cap of $448.42 billion, a P/E ratio of 36.94, and a beta of 1.01. Its 50-day moving average sits at $109.17, and the 200-day is at $89.29.
Valuation Red Flag
GuruFocus is less optimistic. Its proprietary GF Value estimate puts Cisco’s intrinsic value at $68.30, making the current price roughly 66.6% above that figure. That earns the stock a label of “Significantly Overvalued.”
Cisco’s current P/E of 36.9x is well above its 5-year median of 19.8x — a premium of roughly 87%.
The GF Score comes in at 81/100, with strong marks for profitability (8/10) and growth (8/10), but a valuation score of just 3/10.
Insider activity adds another layer of caution. Over the past three months, insiders sold around $7.2 million in stock, with zero buying. EVP Thimaya Subaiya sold 7,127 units on June 16 at an average price of $119.91. EVP Oliver Tuszik sold 2,607 units on June 11 at $121.12. Both sales were executed under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans.
Institutional investors hold 73.33% of the stock. Several large funds added to their positions in Q4, including Truist Financial, which owns over 4.3 million units.
The stock has a 52-week range of $65.75 to $130.37, putting Friday’s close near the higher end of that band.
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