TLDR
- DA Davidson initiates Micron with a Buy rating and a Street-high $1,000 price target, implying ~91% upside
- The bull case centers on AI creating a longer, structurally different memory cycle than previous ones
- Micron signed a five-year supply deal in March — the first of its kind among memory suppliers
- TD Cowen raised its target to $660 from $550, also maintaining a Buy rating
- Micron’s HBM market share grew from ~5% in 2024 to ~21% by Q2 2025, passing Samsung
Micron Technology received two bullish analyst calls on Monday, with DA Davidson setting the highest price target on Wall Street at $1,000 per share.
DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria initiated coverage with a Buy rating, arguing that AI is changing the memory industry in a way markets haven’t fully priced in yet. His $1,000 target implies roughly 91% upside from Micron’s recent closing price of $524.56.
The target is based on 10x Micron’s fiscal year 2030 earnings estimate of $139 per share, discounted back three years at a 10% rate.
Luria’s core argument is that prior memory cycles had a fixed demand ceiling — capacity eventually outpaced demand, margins fell, and the cycle ended. AI breaks that pattern.
“Each new compute deployment unlocks new use cases, creating incremental demand that didn’t exist before the infrastructure was built,” Luria wrote.
He also pointed to the rise of multi-year strategic customer agreements as a sign of how the industry is shifting. Micron announced a five-year supply deal in March, the first memory supplier to do so. Samsung and SK Hynix are said to be in similar talks with hyperscalers.
HBM Is the Real Story
High-bandwidth memory is at the center of Micron’s growth story. The company grew its HBM market share from around 5% in 2024 to approximately 21% by Q2 2025, overtaking Samsung to become the second-largest HBM supplier.
Luria also flagged Micron’s node leadership — four consecutive generations ahead in DRAM, three in NAND — as a compounding cost advantage that the market may be undervaluing.
“The market is still framing the cycle through the lens of prior downturns, which appears to underestimate the demand environment,” he said.
TD Cowen Also Raises Target
TD Cowen raised its price target on Micron to $660 from $550, while keeping its Buy rating. The firm said long-term supply agreements are being structured with gross margin floors around 60% and ceilings in the high-80s percentage range.
TD Cowen noted the next catalyst for the stock is more about durability than earnings upside, with AGI-driven CPU demand potentially supporting the DRAM narrative longer term.
The firm expects Micron’s earnings per share to beat Street estimates by around 20% in the May quarter — projecting $23 versus the $19 consensus — and by 18% in the August quarter at $27 versus $23.
TD Cowen’s calendar year 2027 EPS estimate sits at $110, slightly above the Street’s $106.
The firm did flag near-term headwinds in the second half of the year, noting that transitions from high to lower gross margins have historically weighed on the stock.
Micron’s current gross profit margin stands at 58.44% over the last twelve months, with the stock trading at a P/E ratio of 23.42.
Melius Research also recently initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $700 price target, forecasting 41% upside.
Micron stock was trading at $495 on Monday, down about 5.6% on the session.
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