TLDR
- GE stock dropped 23% from early March to April 22 after it revised air travel growth expectations lower.
- Q1 commercial aerospace profit margins hit 26.4%, up over seven percentage points year-over-year.
- Total backlog stands at $210 billion, with commercial services backlog up nearly $30 billion since end of 2024.
- Wall Street analysts average a $347 price target, with 85% rating the stock a Buy.
- Analysts project 15%+ annual earnings growth over the next three years.
GE Aerospace (GE) stock is trading around $306, down sharply from its early-March highs near $348. The drop came after the company trimmed its global air travel growth outlook — and investors didn’t take it well.
Between early March and April 22, the stock fell 23%, hitting a low of $268.91. The slide started when tensions flared in the Middle East, raising fears about oil prices and travel demand.
On April 21, GE reported Q1 earnings of $1.86 per share, beating analyst estimates of $1.60 by $0.26. Revenue came in at $11.61 billion, up 24.6% year-over-year.
The company kept its full-year 2026 earnings guidance in place, calling for around 15% growth. But it also revised its global air travel growth forecast from mid-single digits to flat-to-low single digits. That one revision sent the stock down nearly 6% in a single session.
Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard called it an “unpunished good deed,” noting GE chose the prudent path by updating its guidance rather than staying silent on an uncertain situation. He rates the stock Buy with a $358 price target.
Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said she bought more stock after the report. She called the reaction “absurd” given the strength of the quarter, pointing to the company’s backlog as a key reason to own it.
Backlog Tells the Real Story
GE Aerospace’s total backlog sits at $210 billion. Its commercial services backlog alone is $170 billion, up nearly $30 billion since the end of 2024. Boeing and Airbus together hold unfilled orders for roughly 15,000 commercial jets worth over $1 trillion — many of which will carry GE engines.
GE and its partner Safran hold a 75% market share in single-aisle jets. That’s a dominant position in the fastest-growing segment of commercial aviation.
Q1 commercial aerospace profit margins came in at 26.4%, up more than seven percentage points from Q1 2024. Supplier output was up double digits year-over-year, and turnaround times at GE maintenance facilities are improving.
The defense side is also performing well. The defense propulsion business grew 19% year-over-year in Q1, supplying engines for the F-16, Apache helicopter, and others. GE’s new XA102 engine is a contender to power the Air Force’s next-generation F-47 fighter jet.
What Wall Street Thinks
At roughly 40 times forward earnings, the stock is not cheap. But analysts say the growth justifies it. Earnings per share are projected to grow north of 15% annually for the next three years. Wall Street’s current 2028 EPS estimate sits at $9.80, which analysts say supports a $350 price target within 12 to 18 months.
About 85% of analysts rate GE a Buy — around 30 percentage points above the average Buy rating for S&P 500 stocks. The average price target is $347.
UBS has a $350 target with a Buy rating. Wolfe Research has a $360 target with an Outperform. JPMorgan has an Overweight rating and a $335 target.
GE is also on a streak of 13 consecutive quarters beating Wall Street earnings expectations.
Institutional investors continue to add exposure. Vanguard raised its holdings by 0.8% in Q4. Capital World Investors increased its position by 16.2%. Maple Capital Management added 4.3% to its stake in Q4.
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