TLDR
- Ondas reports Q1 2025 earnings Thursday before market open, with analysts expecting revenue of ~$38–39M and a loss of $0.05 per share
- The company’s pro forma defense backlog has hit $457M, boosted by the $175M Mistral merger which added ~$264M to the pipeline
- All 7–8 analysts covering ONDS rate it a Strong Buy, with a consensus price target around $20.13–$20.14, implying ~118–124% upside from ~$9.04
- Options traders are pricing in a 15.25% move in either direction post-earnings, reflecting high uncertainty
- Management is guiding 2026 revenue to at least $375M, with company-wide profitability not expected until Q1 2028
Ondas Holdings is heading into Thursday’s earnings report with a lot riding on it. The stock trades around $9.04, up over 56% in the past six months, and Wall Street is watching closely to see if that momentum is backed by the numbers.
Analysts expect Q1 revenue of roughly $38–39 million and a loss of $0.05 per share — a sharp improvement from the same period last year, when revenue came in at just $4.2 million and the per-share loss was $0.15.
That kind of year-over-year jump is hard to ignore. Most of it traces back to acquisitions and a fast-expanding defense contract pipeline.
The big number this quarter is the backlog. Ondas‘ pro forma backlog, which now includes recently acquired Mistral and World View, stood at approximately $457 million as of March 31. The $175 million Mistral merger alone added around $264 million to that figure.
Management has set a 2026 revenue target of at least $375 million. Needham analyst Austin Bohlig thinks the company could push closer to $500 million if execution holds.
Active Contracts Add Weight to the Story
On the ground, the contract activity is real. Ondas is tied into roughly $80 million of active demining programs connected to Israel’s Eastern Border Security Barrier.
Subsidiary INDO Earth Moving also received an initial order of approximately $68 million under a $140 million multi-year military engineering program. Those are long-duration contracts, which gives some visibility into future revenue.
The company also launched the ONBERG Autonomous Systems joint venture in Germany, targeting European defense drone markets.
Last quarter, Ondas posted record Q4 revenue of $30.1 million, well above analyst expectations of $15.9 million. But it missed badly on the earnings side, logging a $0.34 per share loss.
Analyst Targets and Options Activity
All analysts covering the stock rate it a Strong Buy. Price targets range from $20 to $25, with a consensus around $20.14 — that’s more than double the current price.
Maxim analyst Matthew Galinko raised his price target to $22 from $16, noting Ondas has enough cash to fund operations through breakeven, which management expects in 2028.
The options market is flagging caution though. Traders are pricing in a 15.25% swing in either direction after the report — that’s a wide range, and it reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the revenue ramp is on track.
Profitability remains a longer-term question. Ondas expects product-level profitability by Q3 2026, but company-wide profitability isn’t on the table until Q1 2028.
Thursday’s report is the first real test of whether the backlog converts to booked revenue at the pace the company and its analysts are projecting.
Ondas reports before the market opens on May 14, 2026.
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