TLDR
- Bitcoin dropped below $64,000 after Thursday’s Wall Street open, posting its worst weekly loss of 2026 at over 13.5%.
- The $60,000 level and the 200-week moving average are now the key support zones traders are watching.
- Analysts note BTC’s price behavior closely mirrors the June 2022 bear market, almost exactly four years later.
- Santiment data shows social sentiment turned from its most bullish reading on May 22 to its most bearish on June 3, moving with price rather than ahead of it.
- Spot ETFs and Strategy have absorbed over 1.24 million BTC since BTC was last at this level, yet price has returned to $63,000.
Bitcoin posted its worst week of 2026 so far, shedding more than 13.5% and sliding below $64,000 following Thursday’s Wall Street open. The move pulled BTC back to levels last seen in early February and brought it directly to the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently sitting around $61,626.
The 200-week SMA is widely watched as a long-term support level. Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted on X that Bitcoin is “testing its Weekly 200MA for the first time since late 2023,” adding that historically, the asset has never closed substantially below it outside of the 2022 bear market. During that period, BTC traded below the line for roughly nine months and fell as much as 30% deeper from first contact.
$BTC Testing its Weekly 200MA for the first time since late 2023.
Generally, the weekly 200MA is seen as a good value region for long term spot buys. Historically, it never closed considerably below it until the 2022 bear market.
In 2022 it traded below it for about ~9 months… pic.twitter.com/H2xrx0VGX6
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 4, 2026
$60,000 Is the Line in the Sand
Daan Crypto Trades described the broader price structure as “clearly still a bigger down trend” since October 2024, pointing to $60,000 as the critical level for bulls to defend. Order book data from Binance perpetual futures backs that up, with analyst Exitpump noting that “every bounce gets met with a wall of chasing asks,” keeping price pinned as sellers add supply into any recovery attempt.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that since October 2025, total crypto market capitalization has fallen by more than $2 trillion.
Santiment, the on-chain analytics firm, shared data showing BTC’s social sentiment score hit +456 on May 22 near the late-May high of around $78,000. By June 3, it had dropped to -164, the most bearish reading during the stretch. Santiment noted the crowd was “most bullish near the highs and most bearish near the lows,” with sentiment moving alongside price rather than in advance of it.
Bitcoin is down ~18% from its late-May high near $78K to ~$63.8K now. The price drop is everywhere. The sentiment underneath it is the part worth seeing (researched with Santiment MCP + Claude):
📉 $BTC: ~$78K late-May high → ~$63.8K now, down ~18%, with most of the slide in the… pic.twitter.com/f1zgDt6c4U— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) June 4, 2026
Institutional Buying Has Not Prevented the Drop
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju pointed out a striking contrast in the market. Since BTC last traded at $63,000 in March 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated 509,102 BTC, while Strategy has added 650,706 BTC to its holdings. Combined, that is more than 1.24 million BTC — exceeding the estimated size of Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet and equal to nearly half of all exchange reserves.
“More BTC than Satoshi’s stack, nearly half of exchange reserves, has been absorbed, and price is still back at the same level,” Young Ju wrote.
This distribution phase feels like a massive change of hands.
Bitcoin investors' average cost basis is around $53K.
Historically, bear markets ended only after the price fell below the realized price. I thought that level would be hard to revisit, given institutional inflows… pic.twitter.com/m678rL6ztl
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) June 4, 2026
He also flagged the Bitcoin Realized Price — the average cost basis across all wallets on the network — which currently stands at $53,800. Historically, bear markets have ended only when BTC has fallen below this level, though Young Ju noted that institutional inflows make such a revisit harder to picture.
Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin reached the 200-week SMA during its bear market correction on June 13, 2022, and has now done so again in June 2026, almost exactly four years later.
On the 13th of June 2022, Bitcoin reached the 200-week SMA during its Bear Market correction
Now in the 2026 Bear Market, Bitcoin has reached the 200-week SMA almost exactly to the date 4 years later
Bitcoin Cycles are incredible$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/e9jO0WGmm2 pic.twitter.com/Lt9092JUEh
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 4, 2026
The Realized Price currently sits at $53,800, with BTC holding above it for now.
