TLDR
- Goldman Sachs upgraded Porsche AG from “neutral” to “buy,” raising its 12-month price target to €59 from €39
- The stock closed at €47.73, meaning the new target implies roughly 23.6% upside
- Goldman cut its FY2026 EPS estimate by 10.2% to €1.79 but lifted FY2028 EPS by 11.7% to €3.37
- China deliveries are forecast to fall to around 28,000 units in FY2026, down sharply from 93,000 in FY2022
- A separate DCF analysis from Simply Wall St values the stock at €41.11, suggesting it may be overvalued at current prices
Goldman Sachs upgraded Porsche AG (P911) to “buy” from “neutral” on Thursday, lifting its 12-month price target to €59 from €39. The stock closed at €47.73 ahead of the call, putting the new target at roughly 23.6% implied upside.
Porsche Automobil Holding SE, POAHF
The bank applied a 20x target multiple — up from 15x — on a 50/50 blend of FY2027 and FY2028 EPS estimates. The revised target implies 14.5x on FY2029 estimated EPS.
Goldman cut its FY2026 EPS forecast by 10.2% to €1.79, citing near-term headwinds. But it raised FY2028 EPS by 11.7% to €3.37, and forecasts an EPS CAGR to 2030 of 30%.
Two near-term factors drove the revised numbers: 911 model mix normalization and indirect cost reduction.
On the 911 side, Goldman flagged that supplier force-majeure disruptions in the second half of 2024 skewed early deliveries of the new 992.2 generation toward base and mid-tier variants. That’s held back average selling prices in the near term.
Goldman now forecasts 911 ASP growth of around 12% in FY2026 and 5% in FY2027, well above Visible Alpha consensus estimates of 5.9% and 2.4% respectively.
Mix is expected to normalize by 2027 — consistent with how the previous 992 generation played out, which reached maturity in year three to four.
Cost Structure in Focus
On costs, Goldman pointed out that Porsche’s SG&A expenses ran at 12.9% of group revenue in FY2025. That’s higher than Ferrari at 9%, BMW at 7.9%, and Mercedes-Benz at 9.2%. There’s room to tighten.
The bank also noted that only 76.5% of Porsche’s 41,800 employees are covered under the company’s 2030 employment guarantee — a detail worth watching as cost reduction ramps.
Group EBIT is forecast at €2.22 billion in FY2026, climbing to €3.11 billion in FY2027 and €4.17 billion in FY2028. EBIT margins are expected to improve from 6.7% in FY2026 to 9.7% by FY2028.
China Remains a Drag
China continues to weigh on the volume story. Goldman forecasts just 28,000 deliveries in FY2026 and 23,000 in FY2027 — a steep drop from 93,000 units in FY2022. China’s share of total deliveries is expected to fall to 11% in FY2026 and 9.5% in FY2027.
Total group deliveries are forecast at 250,459 units in FY2026 and 246,201 in FY2027, representing volume declines of 10% and 2% respectively.
Not everyone shares Goldman’s optimism. A DCF analysis from Simply Wall St pegs Porsche’s intrinsic value at €41.11 per share — roughly 17.5% below the recent close of €48.29. The firm’s valuation checks scored Porsche 0 out of 6, with a P/E of 140.55x against an industry average of 15.68x.
Over 30 days, P911 is up 13%. Year to date, gains are a more modest 1.4%.
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