TLDR
- Nvidia stock is up 8.75% year to date but trailing the Nasdaq-100 by nearly five percentage points
- Q2 revenue guidance points to a ~95% year-over-year increase if met
- Forward P/E of ~22 sits below the Nasdaq-100 average of 25
- Zacks upgraded NVDA from “hold” to “strong-buy” on Monday
- Average analyst price target stands at $304.26, with 48 of 53 analysts rating it a Buy
Nvidia stock is trading around $207.54, up roughly 2% on Monday, but it has been largely flat for the past three months. That underperformance against the Nasdaq-100 has some investors looking elsewhere — but analysts think that may be a mistake ahead of August earnings.
Investment capital has been rotating into memory chip names and data center power suppliers. The upcoming IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI are also pulling attention, and SpaceX just completed the largest IPO in history. With only so much capital to go around, Nvidia has quietly slipped off the radar for some.
That could be about to change.
Earnings Expectations Are High
Management guided for fiscal Q2 revenue to jump roughly 12% over Q1. If Nvidia simply meets that guidance, it would represent a 95% year-over-year increase. In its most recent quarter, the company posted $81.61 billion in revenue — up 85.2% from the same period last year — beating estimates of $78.42 billion.
EPS came in at $1.87, topping the $1.76 consensus by $0.11. Net margin was 62.97%, and return on equity hit 96.94%. Analysts now forecast full-year EPS of $8.79.
Nvidia also announced an $80 billion stock repurchase program on May 20th, covering up to 1.5% of outstanding stock.
Analyst Ratings and Valuation
Zacks upgraded NVDA from “hold” to “strong-buy” on Monday. The broader analyst community is aligned — 48 analysts have a Buy rating, three have Strong Buy, and only two have a Hold. The average price target is $304.26, compared to Monday’s opening price of $207.29.
Evercore has the most aggressive target at $413, raised from $352 in May. Rothschild & Co Redburn lifted its target from $280 to $300. William Blair and Rosenblatt Securities both maintain Buy-equivalent ratings.
On valuation, Nvidia’s forward P/E sits at roughly 22 — below the Nasdaq-100’s average of 25. For context, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio is about four times Nvidia’s based on expected 2026 revenue, despite not yet being profitable.
Nvidia has a 12-month low of $164.07 and a high of $236.54. Its 50-day moving average is $209.04 and its 200-day moving average is $195.41.
Institutional investors hold 65.27% of the stock. Insider selling has picked up, with Director Mark A. Stevens selling 885,000 units at an average of $210.17 in June, and Director Stephen C. Neal selling 15,500 units at $215.73 earlier that month.
The August earnings report will be the next major test for the stock.
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