TLDR
- The Clarity Act received 49 of the 60 Senate votes needed to advance, falling short this week.
- Kevin O’Leary expects Congress to revisit crypto market structure rules in early 2026, likely after the midterms.
- The House Ways and Means Committee advanced a separate bill setting tax rules for staking, mining, and small crypto transactions.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan reversed his bearish forecast after bitcoin kept rising even as odds of the Clarity Act passing fell.
- SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Mike Selig say their agencies are ready to write their own crypto rules without new legislation.
The Clarity Act, a bill meant to set clear rules for crypto markets, failed to advance in the Senate this week. It received 49 of the 60 votes needed to move forward.
🇺🇸 CLARITY ACT IS NOT DEAD YET.
7 Senate Democrats say they're committed to getting the bill passed. pic.twitter.com/kGMBwtJXKY
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) September 17, 2026
The bill would have defined roles for the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in overseeing digital assets. Its failure leaves those questions unresolved for now.
Clarity Act Falls Short in Senate
Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary spoke about the vote at the Avalanche Summit in New York on Thursday. He said he expected the bill to fail this week.
“The chances of Clarity passing, in my view, were zero, and that’s what happened,” O’Leary said. He does not think the setback marks the end of the bill.
O’Leary pointed to a separate bill that moved forward in the House this week. The House Ways and Means Committee advanced the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act.
That bill would set tax rules for crypto activities such as staking, mining, and small transactions. It also covers requirements for brokers.
O’Leary said the tax bill puts pressure on lawmakers to also finish work on market rules. “Once you tax, you’ve got to have policy,” he said.
He expects Congress to return to the market structure debate after the midterm elections. He said this could happen in the first or second quarter of next year, no matter which party controls Congress.
Bitcoin Rallies Despite Falling Odds of Passage
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan had a different view before the vote. He had called the Clarity Act crypto’s “Punxsutawney Phil” and warned of six more weeks of weak markets if it failed.
After the vote, Hougan changed his outlook. He wrote in a note to clients that the bill’s failure may matter less than headlines suggest.
Hougan pointed to bitcoin’s price. It bottomed near $57,950 on July 1 and climbed above $80,000 by September 4.
During that same stretch, betting site Polymarket’s odds of the Clarity Act passing this year dropped from 39% to 14%. Hougan said this is the opposite of what should happen if the bull market depended on the bill.
He said Wall Street firms have kept building crypto businesses without waiting for Congress. He named Robinhood’s new blockchain, Morgan Stanley’s Solana exchange traded fund, and DTCC’s first tokenized stock trade settlements as examples.
Hougan credited this to the current makeup of federal regulators. He said the SEC and CFTC are pro-crypto and will remain in place until 2029.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins has said his agency is ready to address the issues covered by the Clarity Act through its own rules. CFTC Chair Mike Selig has said the same about his agency.
Still, Hougan pointed to limits of that approach. Agency rules can be reversed by a future administration, and only Congress can give the CFTC full authority over spot crypto markets.
Bitcoin fell about 4% following the vote. Hougan said rising interest rate concerns and oil prices may have also played a role.
He said he expects a few more rough patches ahead for the market. “The bull market ahead of us has a few more speed bumps,” he wrote.
