TLDR
- Kevin O’Leary skipped the SpaceX IPO allocation but says he may start buying once volatility settles, eyeing the $100-$110 range
- SpaceX Q2 revenue hit $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year over year, beating estimates of $6.9 billion
- EPS loss of $0.09 beat the expected $0.26 loss; Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million
- SPCX stock has fallen more than 25% since its June 12 debut, with lockup expirations adding selling pressure
- Argus upgraded SPCX to Buy with a $160 price target; the average analyst target sits at $227.31
SpaceX (SPCX) opened at $114.92 on Friday, trading well below its post-IPO highs. The stock has dropped more than 25% since its June 12 debut, hitting a low of $104.83, even as the company delivered a strong first earnings report.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Q2 revenue came in at $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year over year, beating Wall Street’s $6.9 billion estimate. The company posted an EPS loss of just $0.09, well ahead of the $0.26 loss analysts had expected.
Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million. AI revenue surged roughly 250%. Operating losses narrowed to $143 million from $970 million in the prior year.
Capital expenditures for the quarter topped $18 billion, including $15.83 billion directed at AI infrastructure. That level of spending is the biggest concern for bears, as the company remains GAAP-loss-making.
Musk said SpaceX expects a $100 billion revenue run rate by December. CFO Bret Johnsen said $6.7 billion in cloud-services contracts will begin ramping in October.
Analysts Stay Bullish Despite the Selloff
Argus upgraded SPCX from Hold to Buy on Friday, setting a $160 price target. That implies roughly 39% upside from its recent close.
The broader analyst community remains constructive. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, three rate it Strong Buy, 26 rate it Buy, eight say Hold, and two say Sell. The average price target is $227.31.
Deutsche Bank has a $255 target. Citigroup sits at $200. Royal Bank of Canada reiterated Outperform with a $225 target. Moffett Nathanson is more cautious, rating the stock Neutral with a $131 target.
RBC analyst Ken Herbert called the Q2 results “positive.” Zacks strategist Brian Mulberry described AI monetization as a “tremendous upside surprise.”
Kevin O’Leary Waits for the Dust to Settle
Kevin O’Leary said he passed on his IPO allocation, citing liquidity concerns. He is now watching the $100 to $110 range as a potential entry point.
“As the stock settles over the next 30 to 60 days, I’ll be watching closely, and I may start building a position,” O’Leary posted on X.
He has argued that SpaceX cannot be valued like a typical company on a single quarter. His thesis centers on the potential for Musk to connect SpaceX with Tesla, robotics, AI, and autonomous driving into a broader ecosystem.
Lockup Expirations Keep Pressure On
Thursday’s first lockup expiration made 911.5 million additional shares eligible for sale, more than doubling the public float. Retail buying helped absorb some of the supply, but further staged unlocks remain scheduled through December.
SpaceX and Tesla also confirmed an initial $16.8 billion investment in the Terafab chip facility in Texas. The company separately unveiled plans for orbital AI data centers and a broader mobile network.
SPCX has a 1-year high of $225.64 and a 1-year low of $104.83. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.83.
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