TLDR
- SMCI heads into August 11 fiscal Q4 earnings with Wall Street expecting EPS of $0.92 and revenue of $11.60 billion, up roughly 101% year over year.
- A preliminary update revealed a record backlog of over $60 billion and gross margin guidance of 15%–17%, nearly double prior guidance.
- Options markets are pricing in a post-earnings swing of 16%–19% in either direction.
- Analyst consensus sits at Hold, with an average price target of around $39.21, implying roughly 25%–30% upside from current levels.
- Czech National Bank lifted its stake by 16.9% in Q2, while institutional investors collectively own 84.06% of the stock.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) opened at $31.13 on Monday, trading near its 50-day moving average of $31.26. The stock has ranged between $19.48 and $58.78 over the past 12 months.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI
All eyes are on August 11, when SMCI reports fiscal Q4 earnings. Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.92, which would be more than double year over year, and revenue of around $11.60 billion, up roughly 101%.
The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of 16%–19% in either direction. That tells you the market is deeply split on what comes next.
Before the official report, Super Micro dropped a preliminary update that turned heads. The company revealed a record backlog topping $60 billion and raised its gross margin outlook to 15%–17%, nearly double what was previously guided.
Bulls pointed to the backlog as proof that demand for AI servers and rack-scale systems remains strong. Rosenblatt raised its price target following the update, calling the recent pullback a buying opportunity.
Analyst Targets and Ratings
Not everyone is in the bull camp. Mizuho trimmed its price target from $44 to $34, citing rising competition, memory shortages, and data center buildout delays. Wedbush also cut its target from $42 to $34.
On the other side, Needham raised its target from $40 to $46 and kept a Buy rating. Barclays moved its target up from $34 to $38, though it held an equal weight rating.
Across the board, four analysts rate SMCI a Buy, twelve say Hold, and two have Sell ratings. The consensus price target sits at $39.21.
The company has a PE ratio of 16.47 and a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.37, which some analysts say puts the valuation near multiyear lows.
Institutional Activity and Ownership
Czech National Bank increased its SMCI position by 16.9% during Q2, bringing its total to 160,189 shares worth around $4.7 million. Several other firms also added to positions during the quarter.
Baird Financial Group grew its stake by 54.9%. EverSource Wealth Advisors lifted its holdings by 42.4%. Institutional investors and hedge funds now own 84.06% of the stock combined.
Vanguard is the single largest shareholder at just over 10%, just ahead of CEO Charles Liang.
SMCI has faced questions about its balance sheet. The company has a history of negative free cash flow and recently completed a $7 billion equity raise to fund operations.
One risk flagged by analysts is SMCI’s dependence on Nvidia. Major customers like SpaceX are reportedly building AI infrastructure around Nvidia chips, which could deepen supplier concentration concerns.
The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.88, with a current ratio of 2.66 and a market cap of $18.72 billion.
Earnings are due before the market opens on August 11.
Stop guessing and start investing with confidence. KnockoutStocks gives you the AI insights, market intelligence, and stock research you need to spot opportunities, cut through the noise, and make smarter investment decisions — all in one powerful platform.
Sign up today and get 50% OFF full access to our premium stock picks.
Simply use coupon code SPECIAL50 at checkout to claim your exclusive discount.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
