TLDR
- Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. AI investment will hit nearly $600 billion in 2026, close to 2% of GDP
- U.S. companies raised a record $252 billion in equity in Q2 2026, partly driven by AI financing needs
- AI-related companies accounted for around 40% of U.S. follow-on equity volume this year
- Goldman expects $700 billion in total U.S. corporate equity issuance in 2026, a dollar record
- Share buybacks of $1.4 trillion are expected to more than offset the new stock being issued
Goldman Sachs has released research showing that artificial intelligence spending is reshaping how U.S. companies raise money, but warns that crowding out other investment remains limited for now.
The bank estimates U.S. AI investment will total nearly $600 billion in 2026. That figure equals roughly 2% of U.S. GDP and has made up over 10% of business fixed investment in recent quarters.
AI Driving Record Equity Issuance
U.S. corporations raised $252 billion through IPOs, follow-on offerings, convertible securities, and SPACs in the second quarter of 2026. That beat the previous record of $234 billion set in Q1 2021.
AI companies drove much of that activity. They accounted for roughly 40% of all U.S. follow-on equity volume this year. Technology, media, and telecom firms made up 28% of follow-on volume, more than double their share from the previous five years.
Goldman Sachs named Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Oracle as the key hyperscalers behind the spending push. Consensus estimates put their combined capital spending above $1 trillion annually over the next several years.
Capital spending by these companies is expected to exceed their operating cash flow by around $150 billion in 2027. If spending reaches $1.4 trillion as some investors project, the funding shortfall could exceed $300 billion.
Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider said the rise in equity issuance is more a return to normal than a sign of stress. Total issuance still represents only about 1% of the Russell 3000’s market cap, roughly in line with the 2015 to 2019 annual average.
Debt and Buybacks Expected to Balance the Market
Debt is expected to carry most of the financing load. Goldman Sachs credit strategists forecast hyperscalers will fund 35% of their 2027 capital spending through debt. That translates to roughly $400 billion in global debt issuance next year.
On crowding out, Goldman found only limited signs that AI spending is displacing other business investment. AI-related financing has grown to nearly a quarter of investment-grade issuance, but non-AI credit spreads remain near historical lows.
Follow-on offerings have been priced at an average discount of about 7% to pre-announcement prices. Post-offering stock performance has stayed close to historical norms, suggesting investors are absorbing the new supply without major disruption.
Buybacks are expected to more than offset the increase in new shares. Goldman estimates U.S. companies will repurchase $1.4 trillion in shares this year. S&P 500 buyback growth was tracking at 11% year over year in Q2. Total buyback authorizations had reached a record $989 billion as of the report date.
Goldman Sachs summed it up directly: equity issuance is a “headwind but not a gale.”
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