TLDR
- Cisco reports Q4 FY26 earnings on Wednesday, August 12
- Wall Street expects EPS of $1.17 (up 18% YoY) and revenue of $16.83B (up ~15% YoY)
- Options market is pricing in an 8.26% move in either direction post-earnings
- CSCO stock is up 59% year-to-date, closing at $122.57 on Monday
- AI infrastructure orders are the key focus, with full-year order outlook raised to $9B from $5B
Cisco reports fiscal Q4 results on Wednesday, and there is plenty riding on the print. CSCO stock closed at $122.57 on Monday, up 59% year-to-date, well ahead of the S&P 500’s 13% gain over the same period.
Wall Street is expecting EPS of $1.17, up 18% year-over-year, with revenue projected to come in around $16.83B, representing roughly 15% growth.
The options market is pricing in a move of 8.26% in either direction following the report. That works out to a dollar swing of around $10.13, putting the implied bullish target at $132.70 and the bearish floor at $112.44.
For context, Cisco’s last four post-earnings moves averaged 7.75% in absolute terms. The current implied move sits above that average.
Over the past three months, EPS estimates have seen 18 upward revisions and zero downward revisions. Revenue estimates tell the same story: 18 upward, zero downward.
Cisco has beaten both revenue and EPS estimates 100% of the time over the last two years.
AI Orders in Focus
The main thing investors want to hear about is AI infrastructure. Back in May, Cisco raised its full-year order outlook to $9B from $5B and said it was gaining momentum in AI infrastructure solutions.
UBS analyst David Vogt kept his Buy rating ahead of earnings with a price target of $132. He flagged that demand for AI infrastructure accelerated over the past three months, and sees a real chance Cisco beats his networking revenue estimate of $9.6B, which already implies 26% year-over-year growth.
Vogt expects product order growth of 29% for Q4, down from 35% in Q3, which was the strongest quarter in over a decade. He still sees upside to that estimate, pointing to strength in pluggables and systems.
Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani said his checks point to “robust demand across campus and enterprise markets” that should support both revenue momentum and order strength.
Morgan Stanley expects Cisco’s FY27 AI revenue targets to be raised to the $6.5B to $7B range, with the rest of the portfolio growing closer to 5-7%.
Margin Watch
Citi’s Atif Malik flagged that higher networking hardware mix and elevated memory costs could keep gross margins around 66%, flat quarter-over-quarter and at the midpoint of guidance.
Vogt echoed that view, noting that higher component costs could limit gross margin upside despite strong revenue expectations.
Any commentary suggesting margin pressure is building could weigh on how the market reacts, even if the top-line numbers land well.
Wall Street’s consensus heading into the print is a Moderate Buy, with 11 Buy ratings and four Holds. The average price target sits at $136.23, implying around 11.2% upside from Monday’s close.
Cisco will report after the market closes on Wednesday, August 12.
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