Elon Musk’s SpaceX Stock Forecast: Morgan Stanley Sees $600 Bull Case

TLDR

• Morgan Stanley maintains a $300 SpaceX price target while setting a $600 bull case for stronger AI growth.
• SpaceX’s planned $60 billion Cursor acquisition is central to Morgan Stanley’s higher valuation scenario.
• Cursor’s annual recurring revenue could reach $8 billion by year-end 2026 and $33 billion by 2030.
• Morgan Stanley expects Cursor to contribute about $2.5 billion to SpaceX revenue in 2026 and $13 billion in 2027.
• Upcoming Grok updates, Cursor revenue data and potential Composer 3 launch remain key developments for SpaceX stock.

SpaceX stock is facing a wide valuation range after Morgan Stanley maintained a $300 price target while setting a $600 bull case.

The forecast follows SpaceX’s planned $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, an artificial intelligence coding platform developed by Anysphere. Morgan Stanley expects the deal to add new revenue to SpaceX as the company expands beyond rockets and Starlink.

Morgan Stanley Maintains $300 SpaceX Price Target

Morgan Stanley has kept its $300 SpaceX stock price target following the planned Cursor acquisition. The firm also set a $600 bull case based on stronger growth across SpaceX’s AI operations, Starship and orbital computing plans.

SpaceX shares were trading around $136.54, down 1.59%, based on the supplied market data. The stock has fallen about 14.5% since its listing, while the current price remains below the $150 level that some traders are watching.

Source: X

Morgan Stanley estimates that SpaceX’s AI business currently accounts for about $12 per share of its valuation. The estimate is based on the company’s current stock price and puts the AI business at slightly more than 1x expected 2028 enterprise value-to-sales.

The brokerage expects further details on Cursor’s financial performance when SpaceX reports its third-quarter results. Updates on Grok models and potential new AI products could also provide additional information about the company’s AI plans.

---

---

$60 Billion Cursor Deal Adds to SpaceX AI Strategy

SpaceX announced in June that it would exercise its option to acquire Cursor through a $60 billion all-stock transaction. The deal is expected to close during the third quarter of 2026.

Cursor provides AI tools that help developers write, edit, debug and review software code. The company says its platform is used by more than 50,000 businesses and over 64% of Fortune 500 companies.

Morgan Stanley expects Cursor’s annual recurring revenue to reach $8 billion by the end of 2026. The firm projects that figure could rise to about $33 billion by 2030.

The brokerage expects Cursor to contribute about $2.5 billion to SpaceX revenue in 2026. That estimate rises to about $13 billion in 2027, making the software business a larger part of SpaceX’s projected AI revenue.

Cursor’s gross margin is also expected to turn positive in the third quarter of 2026. Morgan Stanley projects margins could reach the low-60% range by 2030 as more work moves toward Composer and Grok models.

SpaceX Stock Forecast Depends on AI Growth

Morgan Stanley’s $600 SpaceX stock forecast represents its bull case rather than its base valuation. The firm continues to use $300 as its main price target, leaving a wide gap between the two scenarios.

The bullish case depends on stronger execution across SpaceX’s AI business and other planned operations. Morgan Stanley is also watching upcoming Grok 4.6 and Grok 4.7 updates, followed by the expected release of Grok 5 before the end of 2026.

A potential Composer 3 model could also add to the AI product pipeline. Further information about Cursor’s recurring revenue could provide more detail about the contribution expected from the acquisition.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the relationship between Cursor and SpaceX’s wider AI platform could become important as the business expands. He described Cursor’s development from a coding tool toward a broader AI platform as a factor behind the $600 bull case.

Separately, Arete raised its SpaceX price target to $450 from $401 while maintaining a Buy rating, based on the supplied material. The separate forecast adds another higher valuation target as investors assess SpaceX’s expanding AI strategy.