TLDR
- Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh maintained an Outperform rating on MU with a $1,375 price target, implying 60% upside from current levels
- MU has dropped 12% over the past month, trading around $857, well below its June peak above $1,200
- Rakesh says fears about Chinese competitor CXMT are overblown, with any real supply impact not expected until 2028
- Micron posted $25.11 EPS and $41.46 billion in revenue last quarter, up 345.8% year over year
- Street consensus is Strong Buy with an average price target of $1,569.07, implying over 84% upside
Micron Technology (MU) is trading around $857, down roughly 12% over the past month and well off its late June peak above $1,200. The selloff has been driven by investor concern over whether the chipmaker can maintain its elevated gross margins going forward.
Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh, a 5-star rated analyst, isn’t buying the pessimism. He reiterated an Outperform rating and kept his $1,375 price target in place after a meeting with Micron executives. That target implies around 60% upside from where the stock sits today.
The core of his thesis is simple: memory supply stays tight. Rakesh wrote that “we believe Micron sees DRAM/NAND market tight well through 2027E,” which should keep pricing strong and margins elevated.
He also pointed to Micron’s forward price-to-earnings ratio sitting below six as a sign the stock looks cheap relative to its earnings potential. Long-term supply agreements are expected to lock in price premiums on future memory products, supporting gross margins above 80%.
China Competition Concerns Overstated
One of the bigger overhangs for MU has been the rise of Chinese memory maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). Reports that Apple lobbied regulators to buy CXMT chips to offset global shortages added fuel to the worry.
Rakesh pushed back on that narrative. He said any incremental real supply from CXMT is “only coming in 2028E and still no meaningful change to supply-demand imbalance.” He also noted CXMT is focused primarily on domestic Chinese demand and lacks the manufacturing capacity to produce advanced memory chips at scale.
On the institutional side, Handelsbanken Fonder raised its Micron stake by 6.3% in Q2, adding 37,420 units to reach 630,685 total, worth roughly $728 million. Institutional investors collectively hold 80.84% of the company.
Strong Fundamentals Backing the Bull Case
Micron’s most recent quarterly results gave analysts plenty to work with. The company posted $25.11 in EPS, beating the $21.39 consensus by $3.72. Revenue came in at $41.46 billion, well above the $35.91 billion estimate and up 345.8% year over year.
The company set Q4 2026 EPS guidance at $30 to $32. Analysts as a group expect $72.93 in EPS for the full fiscal year.
On the analyst front, Bank of America raised its target to $1,500 and rates the stock Buy. Cantor Fitzgerald also carries a $1,500 target with an Overweight rating. Goldman Sachs moved its target from $900 to $1,100 but kept a Neutral rating.
The broader Street consensus stands at Buy, with an average 12-month price target of $1,569.07, implying more than 84% upside from current levels.
One note worth tracking: insiders have sold 162,179 units of stock worth roughly $167.8 million over the last quarter, including CEO Sanjay Mehrotra’s sale of 31,285 units at an average of $926.83 on July 24th.
HBM supply also remains tight. UBS noted that Nvidia may have reduced planned HBM4E content in its upcoming VR300 GPU due to supply constraints, a dynamic that could further support Micron’s pricing power.
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