TLDR
- NBIS is up 128% in 2026 but trades 33% below its June peak ahead of Q2 earnings on August 12.
- D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria cut his price target from $250 to $175 and assigned a Neutral rating.
- Luria visited Nebius’ Vineland, NJ data center and doubts it can reach 328MW of active power by year-end.
- Options data points to a bullish outlook, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.60x and a potential 10% surge target of $209.
- Wall Street consensus sits at Moderate Buy with an average price target of around $241 to $247.
Nebius has been one of the more exciting AI infrastructure names in 2026. The stock is up about 128% year-to-date, but it has pulled back roughly 33% from its June high, and investors are heading into Wednesday’s Q2 earnings with a mix of optimism and real concern.
Q2 results drop before the market opens on August 12. Wall Street expects a loss of $0.67 per share, which would be more than 76% wider than last year. Revenue consensus sits around $573 million, a massive jump on a year-over-year basis.
The losses are not the main worry. In AI infrastructure, heavy upfront spending on GPU clusters and data center capacity is part of the game. What matters more to investors right now is whether Nebius can convert that spending into revenue-producing infrastructure on time.
Construction Delays at Vineland
That question brings us to Nebius‘ Vineland, New Jersey data center. The facility is a key part of the company’s expansion plan and is expected to grow from around 50MW to 328MW. It could account for as much as half of this year’s planned capacity increase.
Nebius ended 2025 with about 170MW of active power. The target is to reach 800MW to 1,000MW of connected power by year-end. That is a big jump, and Vineland is supposed to carry a lot of that weight.
D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria actually visited the site. What he saw did not give him confidence. “We have visited the site and do not believe the construction is at a point that could easily be transformed into 328MW of active power by the end of the year,” he said.
Luria also raised a technical concern. Nebius could classify recently delivered Bloom Energy units as connected capacity before year-end. But he worries the facility may still fall short of generating enough December revenue to support management’s targeted $7 billion to $9 billion run rate.
On that basis, Luria cut his price target on NBIS from $250 to $175 and moved to a Neutral rating. That new target implies about 10% downside from current levels. He also flagged that Nebius continues operating with negative margins, calling it a “leap of faith” to believe the company can reach profitability levels that justify the current valuation.
Options Traders Are More Optimistic
Not everyone is as cautious. Options market data tells a different story. The current put-to-call ratio on NBIS sits at 0.60x, which signals a bullish lean. Barchart data puts the upper price target on near-term options contracts at just over $209, pointing to a potential 10%-plus move higher through the end of the week.
Nebius has backing from Nvidia, which invested $2 billion in the company. It also holds multi-billion-dollar compute commitments from Meta and Microsoft. That customer base is part of why options traders seem willing to look past the widening losses.
The broader Wall Street view remains constructive. Seven analysts rate NBIS a Buy and four are on the sidelines. The average price target across analysts ranges from around $241 to $247, implying roughly 26% to 30% upside from current levels.
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