TLDR
- Micron stock closed up 0.9% at $869, its first gain since last Wednesday
- Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue hit $41.46 billion, up 346% year-over-year; EPS of $25.11, up 1,215%
- Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh reiterated an Outperform rating with a $1,375 price target
- Memory chip market expected to stay tight through 2027, with new supply not arriving until 2028
- A more realistic bull case puts MU at $1,400 by 2030, implying a 13% annualized return
Micron Technology stock closed at $869 on Monday, up 0.9%, snapping a losing streak that stretches back to last Wednesday. The stock is still down 11% over the past month and remains well below its late June peak of over $1,200.
The dip has sparked debate on Wall Street about how high MU can realistically go. One scenario making the rounds puts the price at $2,000 by 2030, though not everyone is buying it.
Micron’s latest numbers were hard to argue with. Revenue in Q3 fiscal 2026, which ended May 28, came in at $41.46 billion, a 346% jump from the same period last year. EPS hit $25.11, up 1,215% year-over-year.
Despite those numbers, the stock trades at just 5.7 times forward earnings. The market is skeptical that Micron can maintain this pace, and historically, the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry has a way of humbling even the strongest runs.
For the $2,000 target to hit by 2030, Micron’s EPS would need to grow at a compound annual rate of 23.5%, while holding that same forward P/E of 5.7. That is a tall order.
What Analysts Are Saying
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh reiterated his Outperform rating this week after meeting with Micron’s management. His price target stands at $1,375.
Rakesh wrote that Micron sees the DRAM and NAND memory chip market staying tight “well through 2027,” with any meaningful new supply not arriving until 2028. He values MU at 5.3 times his 2027 book value forecast. The stock currently trades at 3.4 times forward price-to-book, per FactSet.
He also pointed to Micron’s new long-term supply agreements, which carry a premium for future products, as a path to sustaining gross margins above 80%.
On the question of Chinese competition, Rakesh called concerns about ChangXin Memory Technologies “overblown.” He expects CXMT to remain focused on the domestic Chinese market, with limited capacity to move into high-bandwidth memory.
A More Grounded Target
The $2,000 scenario requires things to go nearly perfectly for four straight years in a notoriously cyclical industry. Most analysts think that is too aggressive.
A more conservative bull case puts MU at $1,400 by 2030. That would still represent a 13% annualized return from current levels, and would require EPS to grow at the same 13% annual rate. Given the long-term supply agreements and tight memory market, that looks more achievable.
The memory chip shortage is currently expected to persist at least through 2027. Wall Street still forecasts earnings growth for the next three years, even with rising AI infrastructure spending.
Apple has reportedly lobbied to be allowed to source memory chips from CXMT due to the shortage, which underscores just how tight supply conditions remain.
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