TLDR
- Bitcoin dipped below $63,500 on Wednesday despite US CPI inflation data matching expectations
- July CPI came in at 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, in line with forecasts
- Fed rate-hold odds for September rose to 60-62% following the CPI print
- Analyst Rekt Capital warned that $63,000 support is “progressively weakening”
- Bitcoin spot volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, according to Glassnode data
Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 on Wednesday after US inflation data came in exactly as expected, failing to give traders a reason to buy.
The July Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. All four measures matched forecasts.
Despite the in-line data, BTC/USD erased its daily gains and was last trading down 0.2% at $63,487.
US stocks stayed calm after the report. Gold held near nine-week highs. Bitcoin was the outlier, failing to hold gains.
Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, said the CPI print combined with last Friday’s weak jobs report — which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs — points to “gradual cooling without a recession scare.” He said September rate odds should stay roughly stable.
The CME FedWatch Tool showed a 60-62% probability that the Fed holds rates at 3.50-3.75% in September, up from 30% just one month ago.
$63,000 Support Under Pressure
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged a worrying pattern in Bitcoin’s price action. He noted that each bounce off the $63,000 level has been weaker than the last — going from 6.27%, to 5.83%, to 3.18%, and now just 1.15%.
“At some point the bounces will become so weak that the floor will simply break,” he wrote on X.
The progressively weakening support at ~$63k (orange) is clear
6.27% –> 5.83% –> 3.18% –> and now 1.15% thus far
At some point the bounces will become so weak that the floor will simply break$BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/y5DDSyAtdL pic.twitter.com/muFx2DZMvI
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 12, 2026
Bitfinex Alpha noted that equities hit all-time highs over the past two weeks while Bitcoin failed to close above $65,000-$65,500 even once since July 26, despite printing six consecutive daily highs above that level between August 5-10.
Options Market Pricing in Downside Risk
Andrei Grachev of DWF Labs told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s options market is pricing in more downside risk than upside. Downside strikes near $60,000 on end-August expiry are costing more than equivalent upside strikes near $70,000.
Analyst Ted Pillows posted on X that BTC momentum is weakening. He said that despite stocks and metals rising, Bitcoin has struggled to hold above $65,000, and a drop toward $60,500-$61,000 is possible before any reversal.
$BTC momentum is weakening here.
Despite stocks and metals pumping, Bitcoin has struggled above $65,000.
There's a chance BTC could drop towards $60,500-$61,000 before reversal. https://t.co/DdjqmZdybM pic.twitter.com/eHmcVbxnSd
— Ted (@TedPillows) August 12, 2026
On-chain data firm Glassnode reported that Bitcoin spot exchange volume has dropped to its lowest since its data series began in early 2019. Wu Blockchain highlighted the warning, noting that Glassnode flagged $58,500 as a key downside risk level if thin bids and leveraged positions amplify any breakdown below the June low.
Bitcoin Spot Volume Hits Lowest Since 2019 as Glassnode Flags $58,500 Downside Risk
Bitcoin spot exchange volume has fallen to its lowest level since Glassnode’s data series began in early 2019, with BTC caught between the $63,000 Median Realized Price and the $68,700 Short-Term… pic.twitter.com/QE6ydBeuR5
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 13, 2026
Thursday’s July PPI report is the next major data point markets are watching.
