TLDR
- Applied Materials reports fiscal Q3 results after market close today, with analysts expecting $8.99B in revenue and $3.36 EPS
- That would represent 23% revenue growth and 36% EPS growth year-over-year
- Options market implies a potential 7.4% move in AMAT stock after earnings
- Put-to-call ratio of 1.4x on contracts expiring Aug. 14 signals bearish options sentiment
- Wall Street holds a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $667.46, implying 21.8% upside
Applied Materials reports fiscal Q3 earnings after the bell today, and the setup heading in is genuinely interesting. The numbers look strong on paper, but the options market is not convinced.
Analysts expect revenue of $8.99 billion, up roughly 23% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS is forecast at $3.36, which would be around 36% growth. Applied Materials itself guided for $8.95 billion in revenue and $3.36 EPS, putting the company largely in line with Wall Street.
AMAT stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of nearly 43x. That is more expensive than Nvidia, which trades at roughly 24x forward earnings.
The options market is leaning bearish ahead of the print. The put-to-call ratio on contracts expiring Aug. 14 sits at 1.4x, a notably bearish skew. The lower strike price on those contracts sits below $517, pointing to potential downside of more than 6% following earnings.
Post-Earnings Track Record Is Mixed
Applied Materials has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last eight quarters, but the stock’s reaction has not always followed suit.
After Q3 FY2025 results, AMAT fell nearly 15%. A smaller 2% decline followed Q4. The stock bounced 4.4% after Q1 FY2026 earnings, and the most recent Q2 report produced almost no movement at all.
That pattern shows that beating estimates is not enough on its own. Guidance and commentary on demand will matter just as much as the numbers.
What Investors Are Watching
AI infrastructure spending remains a key focus. Applied Materials has been benefiting from rising demand for advanced memory and logic manufacturing equipment as chipmakers build out capacity for AI workloads.
Investors will also be watching China exposure and margin commentary. Any cautious language on those fronts could weigh on AMAT stock even if the quarterly numbers come in ahead of expectations.
Insider activity has been one-sided. Over the trailing 12 months, there have been 69 insider sell transactions and zero buys.
William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji recently initiated coverage with a Hold rating. He acknowledged the AI tailwind but flagged valuation as a concern, with AMAT up 114% this year and trading at 29x his 2027 earnings estimate.
Despite that, the broader Wall Street view stays positive. AMAT carries a Strong Buy consensus on TipRanks, based on 25 Buy ratings and three Holds. The average price target of $667.46 implies 21.8% upside from current levels. Barchart’s consensus target of $630 points to a potential 15% rally.
The options market implies a move of 7.4% in either direction after today’s results.
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