TLDR
- Moderna and Merck’s mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, reduced melanoma recurrence by 49% in a late-stage trial of over 1,000 patients, marking the first successful therapeutic cancer vaccine after 100+ years of failed attempts.
- MRNA stock opened at $142.77 on Friday, down 4.6%, despite being up over 130% since the vaccine results were announced.
- Wall Street analysts see vaccine sales topping $1 billion by 2030 and $3 billion by 2035, with U.S. approval possible as early as next year.
- Moderna plans to raise up to $2.3 billion through convertible notes, raising dilution concerns while the company remains unprofitable with a -$6.18 EPS forecast for the year.
- Analyst consensus sits at “Hold” with an average price target of $74.31, though some targets have been raised as high as $135.
Moderna (MRNA) stock opened at $142.77 on Friday, down 4.6%, even as the company sits at the center of one of the biggest medical stories in years. The stock has still surged more than 130% since trial results for its personalized cancer vaccine were announced.
The vaccine, known as intismeran autogene, was developed alongside Merck (MRK) over a decade-long collaboration. It reduced melanoma recurrence by approximately 49% in a late-stage trial of more than 1,000 patients. Cancer experts are calling it the first successful therapeutic cancer vaccine after more than a century of failed attempts.
Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel was at a birthday dinner when the call came in August. He compared the moment to learning of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine trial results in 2020.
The partnership between the two companies began in 2016. Merck paid $200 million upfront and another $250 million in 2022. The two firms share both costs and profits equally.
How the Vaccine Works
The vaccine uses mRNA technology to teach the immune system to attack cancer cells by targeting mutations unique to each patient’s tumor. It provides 34 patient-specific cancer targets and is paired with Merck’s Keytruda to activate T-cells that hunt down abnormal cells.
Earlier cancer vaccines targeted just one or two mutations and failed. By going after dozens of mutations at once, the companies gave themselves far more chances to succeed. “You have many, many more shots on goal,” said Moderna co-founder Robert Langer.
The trial focused on early-stage melanoma patients following surgery, giving the vaccine time to work and the immune system time to respond.
What Comes Next
U.S. FDA approval could come as soon as next year. Wall Street analysts forecast vaccine sales exceeding $1 billion by 2030 and $3 billion by 2035, per LSEG data.
The next step is testing whether the vaccine works in cancers with fewer mutations, including lung, kidney, and pancreatic cancers.
On the financial side, Moderna announced plans to raise up to $2.3 billion through convertible notes due in 2032. The company remains unprofitable, posting a loss of $1.97 per share in Q2, beating estimates of -$2.03. Revenue came in at $145 million, well above the $102.93 million analyst estimate.
Analyst sentiment is mixed. Barclays raised its price target to $125, Loop Capital set a $135 target, and Royal Bank of Canada set a $130 target. The consensus rating remains “Hold” with an average target of $74.31.
Institutional investors hold 75.33% of MRNA, with CIBC World Markets picking up a new position of 16,797 units worth roughly $1.18 million in Q2.
The FDA also approved Moderna’s updated 2026-2027 COVID-19 vaccines this week, targeting the XFG subvariant, adding another near-term catalyst for the company.
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